PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Nana Anokye
AU  - Julia Fox-Rushby
AU  - Sabina Sanghera
AU  - Derek G Cook
AU  - Elizabeth Limb
AU  - Cheryl Furness
AU  - Sally Margaret Kerry
AU  - Christina R Victor
AU  - Steve Iliffe
AU  - Michael Ussher
AU  - Peter H Whincup
AU  - Ulf Ekelund
AU  - Stephen deWilde
AU  - Tess Harris
TI  - Short-term and long-term cost-effectiveness of a pedometer-based exercise intervention in primary care: a within-trial analysis and beyond-trial modelling
AID  - 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-021978
DP  - 2018 Oct 01
TA  - BMJ Open
PG  - e021978
VI  - 8
IP  - 10
4099  - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/8/10/e021978.short
4100  - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/8/10/e021978.full
SO  - BMJ Open2018 Oct 01; 8
AB  - Objectives A short-term and long-term cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of two pedometer-based walking interventions compared with usual care.Design (A) Short-term CEA: parallel three-arm cluster randomised trial randomised by household. (B) Long-term CEA: Markov decision model.Setting Seven primary care practices in South London, UK.Participants (A) Short-term CEA: 1023 people (922 households) aged 45–75 years without physical activity (PA) contraindications. (b) Long-term CEA: a cohort of 100 000 people aged 59–88 years.Interventions Pedometers, 12-week walking programmes and PA diaries delivered by post or through three PA consultations with practice nurses.Primary and secondary outcome measures Accelerometer-measured change (baseline to 12 months) in average daily step count and time in 10 min bouts of moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA), and EQ-5D-5L quality-adjusted life-years (QALY).Methods Resource use costs (£2013/2014) from a National Health Service perspective, presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for each outcome over a 1-year and lifetime horizon, with cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and willingness to pay per QALY. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses evaluate uncertainty.Results (A) Short-term CEA: At 12 months, incremental cost was £3.61 (£109)/min in ≥10 min MVPA bouts for nurse support compared with control (postal group). At £20 000/QALY, the postal group had a 50% chance of being cost saving compared with control. (B) Long-term CEA: The postal group had more QALYs (+759 QALYs, 95% CI 400 to 1247) and lower costs (−£11 million, 95% CI −12 to −10) than control and nurse groups, resulting in an incremental net monetary benefit of £26 million per 100 000 population. Results were sensitive to reporting serious adverse events, excluding health service use, and including all participant costs.Conclusions Postal delivery of a pedometer intervention in primary care is cost-effective long term and has a 50% chance of being cost-effective, through resource savings, within 1 year. Further research should ascertain maintenance of the higher levels of PA, and its impact on quality of life and health service use.Trial registration number ISRCTN98538934; Pre-results.