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Scanning the horizon: a systematic literature review of methodologies
  1. Philip Hines1,2,3,
  2. Li Hiu Yu1,3,
  3. Richard H Guy1,4,
  4. Angela Brand2,3,
  5. Marisa Papaluca-Amati1
  1. 1 Scientific Committees Regulatory Science Strategy, European Medicines Agency, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
  2. 2 UNU-MERIT, United Nations University-Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology, Maastricht, The Netherlands
  3. 3 Department of International Health, Faculty ofHealth, Medicine and Life Sciences (FHLM), Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
  4. 4 Department of Pharmacy and Pharmacology, University of Bath, Bath, UK
  1. Correspondence to Philip Hines; philip.a.hines{at}gmail.com

Abstract

Objectives Society is confronted with the rapid emergence of innovation in science and technology. To manage this, horizon scanning is being adopted globally to identify, assess and prioritise innovations and trends at an early stage of their development. This enables decision-makers to be better informed and to prepare for change. The aim of this paper is to systematically identify and evaluate horizon scanning methodologies employed in the healthcare and biomedical fields.

Methods A systematic literature review was performed using PubMed and Embase and was supplemented with grey literature searches (2008–2018). The principal methodologies used in horizon scanning were extracted.

Results Approximately 100 articles were summarised in a literature map. The search revealed many examples of horizon scanning across disciplines. Challenges, such as the need to refine prioritisation criteria, manage uncertainty inherent in the findings and improve the dissemination of identified issues, have been highlighted.

Conclusion Horizon scanning, when performed appropriately, is a flexible and potentially reliable tool, with a wide variety of methods. Horizon scanning can inform and influence decision-making, through identifying opportunities and challenges, from an organisational to an international level. Further research to identify the most effective methodologies available would add depth to this landscape and enable the evolution of best practice to most efficiently anticipate novel developments and innovations.

  • public health
  • qualitative research

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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Footnotes

  • Contributors All authors contributed to the conception or design of the work; the acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data; drafting and revising the paper for intellectual content; final approval of the version to be published and agreed to be accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved.

  • Funding The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.

  • Disclaimer The views expressed in this article are the personal views of the authors and may not be understood or quoted as being made on behalf of or reflecting the position of the agencies or organisations with which the authors are affiliated.

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

  • Data sharing statement The data set (excel) has been made available through being uploaded as supplementary information.

  • Patient consent for publication Not required.

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