Objective Type 2 diabetes mellitus is increasing in young adults, and greater adiposity is considered a major risk factor. However, whether there is an association between obesity and diabetes and how this might be impacted by age is not clear. Therefore, we investigated the association between body mass index (BMI) and diabetes across a wide range of age groups (20–30, 30–40, 40–50, 50–60, 60–70 and ≥70 years old).

Design We performed a retrospective cohort study using healthy screening programme data.

Setting A total of 211 833 adult Chinese persons >20 years old across 32 sites and 11 cities in China (Shanghai, Beijing, Nanjing, Suzhou, Shenzhen, Changzhou, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hefei, Wuhan, Nantong) were selected for the study; these persons were free of diabetes at baseline.

Primary and secondary outcome measures Fasting plasma glucose levels were measured and information regarding the history of diabetes was collected at each visit. Diabetes was diagnosed as fasting plasma glucose ≥7.00 mmol/L and/or self-reported diabetes. Patients were censored at the date of diagnosis or the final visit, whichever came first.

Results With a median follow-up of 3.1 years, 4174 of the 211 833 participants developed diabetes, with an age-adjusted incidence rate of 7.35 per 1000 persons. The risk of incident diabetes increased proportionally with increasing baseline BMI values, with a 23% increased risk of incident diabetes with each kg/m² increase in BMI (95% CI 1.22 to 1.24). Across all age groups, there was a linear association between BMI and the risk of incident diabetes, although there was a stronger association between BMI and incident diabetes in the younger age groups (age×BMI interaction, p<0.0001).

Conclusions An increased BMI is also independently associated with a higher risk of developing diabetes in young adults and the effects of BMI on incident diabetes were accentuated in younger adults.