Objective Some studies have reported increasing trends in certain brain tumours and a possible link with mobile phone use has been suggested. We examined the incidence time trends of brain tumour in Australia for three distinct time periods to ascertain the influence of improved diagnostic technologies and increase in mobile phone use on the incidence of brain tumours.
Design In a population-based ecological study, we examined trends of brain tumour over the periods 1982–1992, 1993–2002 and 2003–2013. We further compared the observed incidence during the period of substantial mobile phone use (2003–2013) with predicted (modelled) incidence for the same period by applying various relative risks, latency periods and mobile phone use scenarios.
Setting National Australian incidence registration data on primary cancers of the brain diagnosed between 1982 and 2013.
Population 16 825 eligible brain cancer cases aged 20–59 from all of Australia (10 083 males and 6742 females).
Main outcome measures Annual percentage change (APC) in brain tumour incidence based on Poisson regression analysis.
Results The overall brain tumour rates remained stable during all three periods. There was an increase in glioblastoma during 1993–2002 (APC 2.3, 95% CI 0.8 to 3.7) which was likely due to advances in the use of MRI during that period. There were no increases in any brain tumour types, including glioma (−0.6, –1.4 to 0.2) and glioblastoma (0.8, –0.4 to 2.0), during the period of substantial mobile phone use from 2003 to 2013. During that period, there was also no increase in glioma of the temporal lobe (0.5, –1.3 to 2.3), which is the location most exposed when using a mobile phone. Predicted incidence rates were higher than the observed rates for latency periods up to 15 years.
Conclusions In Australia, there has been no increase in any brain tumour histological type or glioma location that can be attributed to mobile phones.
- brain cancer
- mobile phone
- incidence trends
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Contributors KK, ME, GB and RJC designed the study. KK and LT collected the data. KK and ME reviewed the literature. KK, ME, GB and RJC directed the analyses which were carried out by KK, MS and LT. KK wrote the initial draft. All authors critically revised the manuscript for intellectual content and approved the final version.
Funding This work was supported by National Health and Medical Research Council grant APP1042464.
Disclaimer The funder had no role in the study design, data collection or analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing interests ME has received personal fees from the New Zealand Government Health Department on an independent report on specified health issues of electric and magnetic fields.
Patient consent Not required.
Ethics approval The SA Department for Health and Ageing Human Research Ethics Committee granted ethics approval for use of the SA data (Reference Number: HREC/17/SAH/41).
Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.
Data sharing statement No additional data are available.
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