Objectives Observational studies have suggested that Escherichia coli sequence type (ST) 131 and Klebsiella pneumoniae ST258 have hyperendemic properties. This would be obvious from continuously high incidence and/or prevalence of carriage or infection with these bacteria in specific patient populations. Hyperendemicity could result from increased transmissibility, longer duration of infectiousness, and/or higher pathogenic potential as compared with other lineages of the same species. The aim of our research is to quantitatively estimate these critical parameters for E. coli ST131 and K. pneumoniae ST258, in order to investigate whether E. coli ST131 and K. pneumoniae ST258 are truly hyperendemic clones.

Primary outcome measures A systematic literature search was performed to assess the evidence of transmissibility, duration of infectiousness, and pathogenicity for E. coli ST131 and K. pneumoniae ST258. Meta-regression was performed to quantify these characteristics.

Results The systematic literature search yielded 639 articles, of which 19 data sources provided information on transmissibility (E. coli ST131 n=9; K. pneumoniae ST258 n=10)), 2 on duration of infectiousness (E. coli ST131 n=2), and 324 on pathogenicity (E. coli ST131 n=285; K. pneumoniae ST258 n=39). Available data on duration of carriage and on transmissibility were insufficient for quantitative assessment. In multivariable meta-regression E. coli isolates causing infection were associated with ST131, compared to isolates only causing colonisation, suggesting that E. coli ST131 can be considered more pathogenic than non-ST131 isolates. Date of isolation, location and resistance mechanism also influenced the prevalence of ST131. E. coli ST131 was 3.2 (95% CI 2.0 to 5.0) times more pathogenic than non-ST131. For K. pneumoniae ST258 there were not enough data for meta-regression assessing the influence of colonisation versus infection on ST258 prevalence.

Conclusions With the currently available data, it cannot be confirmed nor rejected, that E. coli ST131 or K. pneumoniae ST258 are hyperendemic clones.