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Is social deprivation an independent predictor of outcomes following cardiac surgery? An analysis of 240 221 patients from a national registry
  1. James Barnard1,
  2. Stuart W Grant1,2,3,
  3. Graeme L Hickey2,3,4,
  4. Ben Bridgewater1,2
  1. 1Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University Hospital of South Manchester, Manchester, UK
  2. 2National Institute for Cardiovascular Outcomes Research (NICOR), University College London, Institute of Cardiovascular Science, London, UK
  3. 3Academic Surgery Unit, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Education and Research Centre, Manchester, UK
  4. 4Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, University of Liverpool, Institute of Infection and Global Health, The Farr Institute@HeRC, Liverpool, UK
  1. Correspondence to James Barnard; jim.barnard{at}


Objectives Social deprivation impacts on healthcare outcomes but is not included in the majority of cardiac surgery risk prediction models. The objective was to investigate geographical variations in social deprivation of patients undergoing cardiac surgery and identify whether social deprivation is an independent predictor of outcomes.

Methods National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit data for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), or valve surgery performed in England between April 2003 and March 2013, were analysed. Base hospitals in England were divided into geographical regions. Social deprivation was measured by quintile groups of the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) score with the first quintile group (Q1) being the least, and the last quintile group (Q5) the most deprived group. In-hospital mortality and midterm survival were analysed using mixed effects logistic, and stratified Cox proportional hazards regression models respectively.

Results 240 221 operations were analysed. There was substantial regional variation in social deprivation with the proportion of patients in IMD Q5 ranging from 34.5% in the North East to 6.5% in the East of England. Following adjustment for preoperative risk factors, patients undergoing all cardiac surgery in IMD Q5 were found to have an increased risk of in-hospital mortality relative to IMD Q1 (OR=1.13; 95%CI 1.03 to 1.24), as were patients undergoing isolated CABG (OR=1.19; 95%CI 1.03 to 1.37). For midterm survival, patients in IMD Q5 had an increased hazard in all groups (HRs ranged between 1.10 (valve+CABG) and 1.26 (isolated CABG)). For isolated CABG, the median postoperative length of stay was 6 and 7 days, respectively, for IMD Q1–Q4 and Q5.

Conclusions Significant regional variation exists in the social deprivation of patients undergoing cardiac surgery in England. Social deprivation is associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality and reduced midterm survival. These findings have implications for health service provision, risk prediction models and analyses of surgical outcomes.

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