Objective To predict the diabetes-related outcomes of people undertaking a type 2 Diabetes Self-Management Education (DSME) programme from their baseline data.

Design A mixed-methods longitudinal experimental study. 6 practice nurses and 2 clinical academics undertook blind assessments of all baseline and process data to predict clinical, behavioural and psychological outcomes at 6 months post-DSME programme.

Setting Primary care.

Participants –31 people with type 2 diabetes who had not previously undertaken DSME.

Intervention All participants undertook the Diabetes Manual 1:1 self-directed learning 12-week DSME programme supported by practice nurses trained as Diabetes Manual facilitators.

Outcome variables Glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diabetes knowledge, physical activity, waist circumference, self-efficacy, diabetes distress, anxiety, depression, demographics, change talk and treatment satisfaction. These variables were chosen because they are known to influence self-management behaviour or to have been influenced by a DSME programme in empirical evidence.

Results Baseline and 6-month follow-up data were available for 27 participants of which 13 (48%) were male, 22 (82%) white British, mean age 59 years and mean duration of type 2 diabetes 9.1 years. Significant reductions were found in HbA1c t(26)=2.35, p=0.03, and diabetes distress t(26)=2.30, p=0.03, and a significant increase in knowledge t(26)=−2.06, p=0.05 between baseline and 6 months. No significant changes were found in waist circumference, physical activity, anxiety, depression or self-efficacy. Accuracy of predictions varied little between clinical academics and practice nurses but greatly between outcome (0–100%). The median and mode accuracy of predicted outcome was 66.67%. Accuracy of prediction for the key outcome of HbA1c was 44.44%. Diabetes distress had the highest prediction accuracy (81.48%).

Conclusions Clinicians in this small study were unable to identify individuals likely to achieve improvement in outcomes from DSME. DSME should be promoted to all patients with diabetes according to guidelines.