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Epidemiology
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Spatio-temporal model to estimate life expectancy and to detect unusual trends at the local authority level in England
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  • Published on: 17 November 2020
    Spatio-temporal models for life expectancy
    • Rodney Jones, Statistical Advisor Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting

    This study is a useful addition to the far wider literature regarding the stalling in life expectancy observed in places around the world. May I recommend several avenues of further investigation to the authors and/or others seeking to explore this area.

    My own published and unpublished research indicates that the output area classification of social groups gives far greater insight into health behaviours than deprivation [1,2]. Hence the observation in this study that areas of similar deprivation show different life expectancies. Deprivation is merely a crude pointer to social group. In an unpublished study of hospital admission via A&E the role of deprivation completely disappeared after adjusting for social group.

    Further research into the role of influenza rates on the expression of excess winter mortality is relevant [3]. This study is about to be published and shows curious spatio-temporal differences between UK local authorities and between countries.

    In a series of papers to be published in the Journal of Health Care Finance I have demonstrated an important role for population density in the transmission of infections and this adds a further layer of complexity to the spatio-temporal patterns. Preliminary investigation is available as a multi-series preprint which covered the spread of Covid-19 [4]. Issues relating to population density are profoundly important.

    As a final area of interest I have been investigating strange patterns i...

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    Conflict of Interest:
    None declared.