Global burden of sickle cell anaemia is set to rise by a third by 2050

The number of babies born with sickle cell anaemia around the world is set to rise by a third by 2050, a study has predicted.

The study, published in PLOS Medicine, used estimates of the prevalence of sickle cell anaemia to predict that the number of cases in newborns is likely to rise to about 404 200 in 2050, up from 305 800 in 2010.1 Between 2010 and 2050 about 14.2 million babies will be born with sickle cell anaemia, it estimates.

Frédéric Piel and colleagues from the University of Oxford, Imperial College London, and the Kenya Medical Research Institute and Wellcome Trust Programme in Kenya stated in their article, “Our quantitative approach confirms that the global burden of SCA [sickle cell anaemia] is increasing, and highlights the need to develop specific national policies for appropriate public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.”

Three countries—India, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo—together accounted for 57% of the global number of newborns with sickle cell anaemia in 2010, though the proportion is predicted to fall to 55% by 2050.

In India the annual number of babies born with sickle cell anaemia is predicted to fall from 44 400 in 2010 to 33 900 in 2050, thereby decreasing its relative contribution to the global burden from 15% to 8%. Nigeria, on the other hand, may see a significant rise in the burden. At a regional level, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 79% of newborns with sickle cell anaemia in 2010, a proportion that could rise to 88% in 2050.

The study also showed that implementation of a universal screening programme in 2015 could potentially save up to 9.8 million lives of newborns by 2050. Most of the lives saved would be in sub-Saharan Africa.

The study was based on several assumptions, such as allele frequencies remaining constant over the time period and the introduction of interventions in 2015 having an immediate effect on mortality. However, despite these limitations, the authors say, the study highlights the urgent need for development of appropriately targeted policies to tackle the increasing burden of the disease.

In 2010 the World Health Organization published a strategy outlining ways to reduce the burden of sickle cell disease in Africa.2 This identified several priority interventions such as improving access to healthcare services, primary prevention and genetic counselling, increasing awareness, and national programmes.