Major decline of hepatitis C virus incidence rate over two decades in a cohort of drug users

Eur J Epidemiol. 2007;22(3):183-93. doi: 10.1007/s10654-006-9089-7. Epub 2007 Mar 3.

Abstract

Injecting drug users (DU) are at high risk for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV infections. To examine the prevalence and incidence of these infections over a 20-year period (1985-2005), the authors evaluated 1276 DU from the Amsterdam Cohort Studies who had been tested prospectively for HIV infection and retrospectively for HCV infection. To compare HCV and HIV incidences, a smooth trend was assumed for both curves over calendar time. Risk factors for HCV seroconversion were determined using Poisson regression. Among ever-injecting DU, the prevalence of HCV antibodies was 84.5% at study entry, and 30.9% were co-infected with HIV. Their yearly HCV incidence dropped from 27.5/100 person years (PY) in the 1980s to 2/100 PY in recent years. In multivariate analyses, ever-injecting DU who currently injected and borrowed needles were at increased risk of HCV seroconversion (incidence rate ratio 29.9, 95% CI 12.6, 70.9) compared to ever-injecting DU who did not currently inject. The risk of HCV seroconversion decreased over calendar time. The HCV incidence in ever-injecting DU was on average 4.4 times the HIV incidence, a pattern seen over the entire study period. The simultaneous decline of both HCV and HIV incidence probably results from reduced risk behavior at the population level.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / complications
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology*
  • Hepatitis C / complications
  • Hepatitis C / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Needle Sharing
  • Needle-Exchange Programs
  • Netherlands / epidemiology
  • Risk Factors
  • Serologic Tests
  • Substance Abuse, Intravenous / complications
  • Substance Abuse, Intravenous / epidemiology*