The "50-50 criteria" on postoperative day 5: an accurate predictor of liver failure and death after hepatectomy

Ann Surg. 2005 Dec;242(6):824-8, discussion 828-9. doi: 10.1097/01.sla.0000189131.90876.9e.

Abstract

Objective: To standardize the definition of postoperative liver failure (PLF) for prediction of early mortality after hepatectomy.

Summary background data: The definition of PLF is not standardized, making the comparison of innovations in surgical techniques and the timely use of specific therapeutic interventions complex.

Methods: Between 1998 and 2002, 775 elective liver resections, including 69% for malignancies and 60% major resections, were included in a prospective database. The nontumorous liver was abnormal in 43% with steatosis >30% in 14%, noncirrhotic fibrosis in 43%, and cirrhosis in 12%. The impact of prothrombin time (PT) <50% and serum bilirubin (SB) >50 micromol/L on postoperative days (POD) 1, 3, 5, and 7 was analyzed.

Results: The lowest PT level was observed on postoperative day (POD) 1, while the peak of SB was observed on POD 3. These 2 variables tended to return to preoperative values by POD 5. The median interval between hepatectomy and postoperative death was 15 days (range, 5-39 days). Postoperative mortality significantly increased in patients with PT <50% and SB >50 microml/L. The conjunction of PT <50% and SB >50 micromol/L on POD 5 was a strong predictive factor of mortality. In patients with significant morbidity, this "50-50 criteria" was met 3 to 8 days before clinical evidence of complications.

Conclusions: The association of PT <50% and SB >50 microml/L on POD 5 (the 50-50 criteria) was a simple, early, and accurate predictor of more than 50% mortality rate after hepatectomy. This criteria could be identified early enough, before clinical evidence of complications, for specific interventions to be applied in due time.

MeSH terms

  • Chi-Square Distribution
  • Female
  • Hepatectomy*
  • Humans
  • Liver Diseases / mortality*
  • Liver Diseases / surgery*
  • Liver Failure / etiology
  • Liver Failure / mortality*
  • Liver Function Tests
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Postoperative Complications / etiology
  • Postoperative Complications / mortality*
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prospective Studies
  • Prothrombin Time*
  • Treatment Outcome