Background: By the use of conditional probabilities of survival, we studied the yearly survival rates for individual tumor survivors.
Methods: Conditional survival rate was estimated in 114 consecutive patients with anaplastic astrocytoma or glioblastoma multiforme. Conditional probabilities of surviving some years given survival to a specific period of time after craniotomy and 95% confidence intervals were calculated in the individual tumor survivors.
Results: The estimated median survival was 30 months for 45 patients with anaplastic astrocytoma and 12 months for 69 patients with glioblastoma multiforme. The conditional probabilities of surviving next one year given survival to 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years, or 5 years after craniotomy for anaplastic astrocytoma were 86.2%, 75.0%, 85.9%, 77.8%, or 85.7%, respectively; for glioblastoma multiforme 64.8%, 58.7%, 85.7%, 80.0%, or 75.0%, respectively. The conditional probability of surviving to 5 years given survival to 2 years after craniotomy for anaplastic astrocytoma, i.e., surviving an additional 3 years, was 50.1%, which was better than observed 5-year survival rate (28.6%); for glioblastoma multiforme it was 40.2%, which also was better than observed 5-year survival rate (12.4%).
Conclusions: The conditional probability of survival was a good method to clinically predict yearly survival rate for individual tumor survivors. In addition, the method can estimate the probabilities of surviving next some years given survival to a specific period of time after craniotomy. It also showed a more encouraging result than observed survival rate in patients with supratentorial malignant astrocytomas.