Hostname: page-component-6b989bf9dc-jks4b Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-14T22:01:56.477Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Effects of Public Opinion on Policy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Benjamin I. Page  and
Robert Y. Shapiro
Benjamin I. Page
Affiliation:
University of Chicago
Robert Y. Shapiro
Affiliation:
Columbia University The National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The responsiveness of government policies to citizens' preferences is a central concern of various normative and empirical theories of democracy. Examining public opinion and policy data for the United States from 1935 to 1979, we find considerable congruence between changes in preferences and in policies, especially for large, stable opinion changes on salient issues. We present evidence that pubic opinion is often a proximate cause of policy, affecting policy more than policy influences opinion. One should be cautious, however, about concluding that democratic responsiveness pervades American politics.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 77 , Issue 1 , March 1983 , pp. 175 - 190
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1983

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Achen, C. H. 1978. Measuring representation. American Journal of Political Science 22:475–510.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arrow, K. J. 1963, orig. pub. 1951. Social choice and individual values. New York: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Dahl, R. A. 1956. A preface to democratic theory. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Davis, J. A. 1975. Communism, conformity, cohorts, and categories: American tolerance in 1954 and 1972-73. American Journal of Sociology 81: 491–513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis, O. A., Hinich, M. J., and Ordeshook, P. C. 1970. An expository development of a mathematical model of the electoral process. American Political Science Review 64:426–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dempsey, G. R. 1982. Public opinion and public policy: a case study of campaign finance in the United States. Unpublished, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Devine, D. J. 1970. The attentive public: polyarchial democracy. Chicago: Rand McNally and Co.Google Scholar
Downs, A. 1957. An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper.Google Scholar
Edelman, M. 1964. The symbolic uses of politics. Urbana, Ill.: University of Illinois Press.Google Scholar
Erikson, R. S. 1976. The relationship between public opinion and state policy: a new look based on some forgotten data. American Journal of Political Science 22:25–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, R. S. 1978. Constituency opinion and congressional behavior: a reexamination of the Miller-Stokes representation data. American Journal of Political Science 22:511–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, R. S. 1981. Measuring constituency opinion: the 1978 congressional election study. Legislative Studies Quarterly 6:235–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hanushek, E. A., and Jackson, J. E. 1977. Statistical methods for social scientists. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Hardin, R. 1982. Collective action. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karplus, S. S. 1979. Public opinion and policy change: the legalization of abortion in the United States. Unpublished, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. Jr. 1961. Public opinion and American democracy. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.Google Scholar
Kuklinski, J. H. 1977. Public opinion: a test of the surrogate model. Public Opinion Quarterly 41: 34–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuklinski, J. H. 1978. Representation and elections: a policy analysis. American Political Science Review 72: 165–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kusnitz, L. 1980. Public opinion and foreign policy: the recognition of the People's Republic of China. Unpublished, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
McConnell, G. 1966. Private power and American democracy. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
McNichol, E. 1980. School busing for integration: a case study in opinion change and policy change. Master's thesis, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Miliband, R. 1976, orig. pub. 1969. The state in capitalist society. London: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Mill, J. S. 1962, orig. pub. 1861. Considerations on representative government. Chicago: Henry Regnery.Google Scholar
Miller, W. E., and Stokes, D. E.Constituency influence in Congress. American Political Science Review 57: 45–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, W. E., and Stokes, D. E. 1966. Constituency influence in Congress. In Elections and the Political Order, eds. Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E.. New York: John Wiley and Sons, pp. 351–73.Google Scholar
Monroe, A. D. 1978. Public opinion and public policy, 1960-1974. Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York.Google Scholar
Monroe, A. D. 1979. Consistency between public preferences and national policy decisions. American Politics Quarterly 7:3–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nie, N. H., Verba, S., and Petrocik, J. R. 1976. The changing American voter. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Olson, M. 1965. The logic of collective action. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Page, B. I., and Shapiro, R. Y. 1980. Policy change and public opinion change. Unpublished, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Page, B. I., and Shapiro, R. Y. 1981a. Congruence between preferences and policy: a preliminary report. Presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Cincinnati.Google Scholar
Page, B. I., and Shapiro, R. Y. 1981b. Effects of public opinion on policy. Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York.Google Scholar
Page, B. I., and Shapiro, R. Y. 1982. Changes in Americans' policy preferences, 1935-1979. Public Opinion Quarterly 46:24–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, B. I., Shapiro, R. Y., Gronke, P. W., and Rosenberg, R. M. 1981. Constituency, party, and representation in Congress. Unpublished, National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Scammon, R. M., and Wattenberg, B. J. 1970. The real majority. New York: Berkley Publishing Corporation.Google Scholar
Schattschneider, E. E. 1960. The semi-sovereign people. Hinsdale, Ill.: The Dryden Press.Google Scholar
Schmaler, E. 1981. Race and housing: a case study of democratic responsiveness comparing opinion change to policy response. Unpublished, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Seidman, D. 1975. Simulation of public opinion: a caveat. Public Opinion Quarterly 39:331–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sen, A. K. 1970. Collective choice and social welfare. San Francisco: Holden-Day.Google Scholar
Shapiro, R. Y. 1982. The dynamics of public opinion and public policy. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Smith, T. W. 1978. In search of house effects: a comparison of responses to various questions by different survey organizations. Public Opinion Quarterly 42:443–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, T. W. 1980. America's most important problem—a trend analysis, 1946-1976. Public Opinion Quarterly 44:164–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, D. G. 1978. The diffusion and change of public attitudes toward some social issues in recent American history. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Weber, R. E., and Shaffer, W. R. 1972. Public opinion and American state policy-making. Midwest Journal of Political Science 16:683–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weber, R. E., Hopkins, A. H., Mezey, M. L., and Munger, F. J. 1972-1973. Computer simulation of state electorates. Public Opinion Quarterly 36:549–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weissberg, R. 1976. Public opinion and popular government. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Weissberg, R. 1978. Collective vs. dyadic representation in Congress. American Political Science Review 72: 535–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wise, D. 1973. The politics of lying. New York: Vintage Books.Google Scholar