Original article
Pancreas, biliary tract, and liver
Factors That Affect Efficacy of Ultrasound Surveillance for Early Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cgh.2014.02.025Get rights and content

Background & Aims

Ultrasound surveillance does not detect early stage hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) in some patients with cirrhosis, although the reasons for this have not been well studied. We assessed the rate at which ultrasound fails to detect early stage HCCs and factors that affect its performance.

Methods

We collected information on 1170 consecutive patients included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database who had Child–Pugh A or B cirrhosis and were diagnosed with HCC during semiannual or annual ultrasound surveillance, from January 1987 through December 2008. Etiologies included hepatitis C virus infection (59.3%), alcohol abuse (11.3%), hepatitis B virus infection (9%), a combination of factors (15.6%), and other factors (4.7%). Surveillance was considered to be a failure when patients were diagnosed with HCC at a stage beyond the Milan criteria (1 nodule ≤5 cm or ≤3 nodules each ≤3 cm).

Results

HCC was found beyond Milan criteria in 34.3% of surveilled patients (32.2% during semi-annual surveillance and 41.3% during annual surveillance; P < .01). Nearly half of surveillance failures were associated with at least one indicator of aggressive HCC (levels of AFP >1000 ng/mL, infiltrating tumors, or vascular invasion and metastases). Semiannual surveillance, female sex, Child–Pugh class A, and α-fetoprotein levels of 200 ng/mL or less were associated independently with successful ultrasound screening for HCC.

Conclusions

Based on our analysis of surveillance for HCC in patients with cirrhosis, the efficacy of ultrasound-based screening is acceptable. Ultrasound was least effective in identifying aggressive HCC, and at surveillance intervals of more than 6 months.

Section snippets

Patients

We retrospectively analyzed the data from the ITA.LI.CA database, including 3027 consecutive patients diagnosed with HCC from January 1987 through December 2008 at 11 Italian medical institutions (6 academic tertiary care centers and 5 hepatology/gastroenterology units located in general hospitals). The data were collected prospectively and updated every 2 years. Among the initial 3027 patients, we selected the 1170 Child–Pugh A or B cirrhotic patients diagnosed with HCC during semiannual or

Results

Of the 1430 cirrhotic patients undergoing ultrasound surveillance, 1170 patients eventually were available for the study (Figure 1). Their demographic and clinical characteristics are summarized in Table 1. HCC was diagnosed by noninvasive criteria in 1013 patients and histologically in 157 patients. In the latter cases, all studied variables were obtained at the time of biopsy, which was performed no later than 1 to 2 months after imaging.

Surveillance was performed with ultrasound plus AFP

Discussion

In our study, nearly one third of HCCs diagnosed during semiannual or annual ultrasound surveillance were detected beyond Milan criteria, which define the upper limit to apply curative treatments. As previously reported,11 surveillance failures were reduced significantly by the more stringent surveillance program, recommended by international guidelines. Notably, half of the failures observed in semiannually surveyed patients were associated with tumors presenting with features of biological

Acknowledgments

Other ITA.LI.CA members who participated in the data acquisition are as follows: Dipartimento di Scienze Mediche e Chirurgiche, Alma Mater Studiorum–Università di Bologna: Mauro Bernardi, Maurizio Biselli, Paolo Caraceni, Alessandro Cucchetti, Marco Domenicali, Marta Frigerio, Annagiulia Gramenzi, Francesca Garuti, Barbara Lenzi, Donatella Magalotti, and Matteo Ravaioli; Dipartimento di Medicina Clinica e Sperimentale, Università di Padova: Alfredo Alberti, Angelo Gatta, and Maurizio Gios;

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    Conflicts of interest The authors disclose no conflicts.

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