Employment Change for Bars and Restaurants Following a Statewide Clean Indoor Air Policy

Background

Clean indoor air policies have been adopted to protect employees in all workplaces from exposure to environmental tobacco smoke. Despite numerous studies where no significant economic effects were associated with clean indoor air policies, concerns persist that such policies will have a severe, negative effect on alcohol-licensed businesses.

Purpose

This study examines the effect of a comprehensive, statewide clean indoor air law on bar and restaurant employment in Minnesota as a whole, as well as by region in the state.

Methods

Interrupted time-series analyses were conducted separately on bar and restaurant employment between 2004 and 2008 using data reported by businesses to the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development. The statewide clean indoor air policy was implemented October 2007; analyses were conducted in 2009.

Results

After accounting for changes in employment in all other sectors for the state as a whole, there were no significant changes in statewide bar or restaurant employment associated with the state-level clean indoor air policy. Additionally, no significant changes were observed in regional bar or restaurant employment following enactment of the clean indoor air policy.

Conclusions

Enactment of a comprehensive clean indoor air policy in Minnesota did not result in significant changes in bar or restaurant employment in rural or urban regions of the state or the state as a whole. In Minnesota, neither bars nor restaurants were associated with significant changes in employment following the enactment of a comprehensive, statewide clean indoor air policy.

Introduction

Individuals can experience frequent exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) at work, especially those who work in bars or restaurants.¹ Bar and restaurant workers (also called hospitality workers), have been identified as a higher-risk group for ETS exposure in the workplace.² Clean indoor air policies or other restrictions on indoor smoking have been deemed the most effective method available to reduce or remove ETS exposure to protect the health of employees.³

Many studies have been conducted to assess the influence of clean indoor air policies on economic factors for worksites, with a particular focus on bars and restaurants. These worksites are of interest due to the correlation between smoking and drinking behaviors.⁴ Opponents of the policies argue that clean indoor air policies in bars and restaurants may reduce the number of customers in these establishments, thereby reducing these establishments' revenue, employment opportunities, and likelihood of remaining in business. Employment and sales revenue figures reported to the state by businesses are regarded as high-quality, objective data appropriate for estimating for potential economic change in bars and restaurants.⁵

In the U.S., most research on the effect of clean indoor air policies on bars and restaurants has been conducted at the local level, as these local policies were generally the first to be implemented. Measures to describe such effects on bars and/or restaurants are those that objectively reflect the economic status of these businesses and can represent changes in patronage and/or income.⁵ Studies of local clean indoor air policies have consistently reported no significant economic effects on either bar or restaurant employment or sales revenue.⁶ As of July 2010, 30 states have implemented a 100% smokefree policy that applies to both bars and restaurants.⁷ In four states (California, New York, Massachusetts, and Florida) economic effects from their state's clean indoor air policy were evaluated. None of the studies found significant, long-term effects on objective measures of economic change in bars and restaurants.8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 Of these, only the studies in California and New York evaluated the effect of a statewide clean indoor air policy on both bars and restaurants, and none have examined regional differences. Opponents of clean indoor air policies have raised concerns that statewide policies may have a differential effect on border communities or rural regions that may be masked in statewide analyses.¹⁴

One technique for the evaluation of economic changes associated with clean indoor air policy is an interrupted time-series analysis. Using this method, a city or state's measure of economic health can be compared before and after policy enactment, controlling for time trends and season of the year. In the published literature, interrupted time-series analysis has been applied to the question of economic effects of local and state clean indoor air policies on restaurants and/or bars in California; Ottawa, Canada; and in Minneapolis and St. Paul MN, where no significant long-term economic effects were detected in any of these locations.15, 16, 17

In October 2007, the Minnesota legislature implemented a statewide, comprehensive clean indoor air policy, following adoption of several local ordinances. Many businesses have claimed economic hardship from and sought modification of the local and statewide policies.18, 19 In Minnesota, studies of local clean indoor air policies found no significant changes in hospitality employment15, 20; however, the effect of Minnesota's statewide clean indoor air policy has not been fully evaluated using statistical techniques to account for economic changes over numerous years. Local bar and restaurant owners continue to claim the statewide clean indoor air policy has harmed their businesses, especially for those located in more rural regions of Minnesota.¹⁸

The goal of this paper is to use time-series analytic methods to evaluate potential changes in bar and restaurant employment in Minnesota resulting from this comprehensive, statewide clean indoor air policy that banned smoking in both bars and restaurants. The independent investigation of bars and restaurants has not been covered in the current evaluations of clean indoor air policies in Minnesota or elsewhere. This paper also aims to assess whether there was geographic variation across Minnesota in terms of potential economic changes. Based on the extensive literature on the economic effects of clean indoor air policies, it is hypothesized that there is a null association between clean indoor air policy implementation and employment in bars or restaurants at the state or regional level in Minnesota.