Elsevier

The Lancet

Volume 367, Issue 9513, 11–17 March 2006, Pages 859-869
The Lancet

Review
Climate change and human health: present and future risks

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68079-3Get rights and content

Summary

There is near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will change Earth's climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0·5°C is partly attributable to such anthropogenic emissions. Climate change will affect human health in many ways—mostly adversely. Here, we summarise the epidemiological evidence of how climate variations and trends affect various health outcomes. We assess the little evidence there is that recent global warming has already affected some health outcomes. We review the published estimates of future health effects of climate change over coming decades. Research so far has mostly focused on thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, with some attention to estimates of future regional food yields and hunger prevalence. An emerging broader approach addresses a wider spectrum of health risks due to the social, demographic, and economic disruptions of climate change. Evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will strengthen the case for pre-emptive policies, and will also guide priorities for planned adaptive strategies.

Section snippets

Climate variations and health

Before the prospect of anthropogenic climate change emerged, epidemiologists were not greatly interested in climate-health relations. Modern epidemiology has focused mainly on studying risk factors for non-communicable diseases in individuals, not populations. Meanwhile, there have been occasional studies examining deaths due to heatwaves, some epidemiological studies of air pollution incorporating temperature as a covariate, and a continuation of the longer standing research interest in

Are any health effects of climate change detectable?

Since global temperatures have risen noticeably over the past three decades (see introduction), some health outcomes are likely to already have been affected. However, there is nothing distinctive about the actual types of health outcomes due to longer-term climate change, versus shorter-term natural variation. Hence, the detection of health effects due to climate change is at this early stage difficult. However, if changes in various health outcomes occur, each plausibly due to the preceding

Estimates of future health effects

Climate change will have many effects on health over the coming decades (figure 1). In view of the residual uncertainties in modelling, how the climate system will respond to future higher levels of greenhouse gases, and uncertainties over how societies will develop economically, technologically, and demographically, formal predictions of future health effects cannot be made. The appropriate task is to make estimations, for future modelled climate situations, of the consequent health effects.136

Conclusion

Research into the existence, future likelihood, and magnitude of health consequences of climate change represents an important input to international and national policy debates. Recognition of widespread health risks should widen these debates beyond the already important considerations of economic disruption, risks to infrastructure, loss of amenity, and threatened species. The evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will indicate priorities for planned adaptive strategies, and

Search strategy and selection criteria

We used keyword combinations to search MEDLINE and Science Citation Index databases for articles published in all languages during the years 1995–2005, including the search terms “climate”, “climate change”, “health”, “health effects”, “dengue”, “malaria”, “heat”, “heat waves”, “time-series”, “floods”, “extreme weather”, and “harmful algae”.

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