We used keyword combinations to search MEDLINE and Science Citation Index databases for articles published in all languages during the years 1995–2005, including the search terms “climate”, “climate change”, “health”, “health effects”, “dengue”, “malaria”, “heat”, “heat waves”, “time-series”, “floods”, “extreme weather”, and “harmful algae”.
ReviewClimate change and human health: present and future risks
Section snippets
Climate variations and health
Before the prospect of anthropogenic climate change emerged, epidemiologists were not greatly interested in climate-health relations. Modern epidemiology has focused mainly on studying risk factors for non-communicable diseases in individuals, not populations. Meanwhile, there have been occasional studies examining deaths due to heatwaves, some epidemiological studies of air pollution incorporating temperature as a covariate, and a continuation of the longer standing research interest in
Are any health effects of climate change detectable?
Since global temperatures have risen noticeably over the past three decades (see introduction), some health outcomes are likely to already have been affected. However, there is nothing distinctive about the actual types of health outcomes due to longer-term climate change, versus shorter-term natural variation. Hence, the detection of health effects due to climate change is at this early stage difficult. However, if changes in various health outcomes occur, each plausibly due to the preceding
Estimates of future health effects
Climate change will have many effects on health over the coming decades (figure 1). In view of the residual uncertainties in modelling, how the climate system will respond to future higher levels of greenhouse gases, and uncertainties over how societies will develop economically, technologically, and demographically, formal predictions of future health effects cannot be made. The appropriate task is to make estimations, for future modelled climate situations, of the consequent health effects.136
Conclusion
Research into the existence, future likelihood, and magnitude of health consequences of climate change represents an important input to international and national policy debates. Recognition of widespread health risks should widen these debates beyond the already important considerations of economic disruption, risks to infrastructure, loss of amenity, and threatened species. The evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will indicate priorities for planned adaptive strategies, and
Search strategy and selection criteria
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