Values of the c-statistics for the prediction of 1-year mortality and occurrence of combined end point (death and/or hospitalisation for AHF) according to the TIMI score, NGAL and BNP on admission and their combination
| Marker | AUC (95% CI) | p Value* | Cut-off | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| One-year mortality | |||||
| TIMI score | 74.4 (66.8 to 82.0) | <0.001 | ≥5.5 | 58.1 | 78.3 |
| NGAL (pg/mL)† | 75.5 (67.3 to 83.8) | <0.001 | ≥84.0 | 79.1 | 65.5 |
| BNP (pg/mL)†‡ | 78.7 (68.7 to 88.8) | <0.001 | ≥150.2 | 72.7 | 78.5 |
| TIMI+NGAL‡ | 82.6 (75.7 to 89.5) | <0.001 | 79.1 | 78.8 | |
| TIMI+BNP†‡ | 79.7 (69.8 to 89.6) | <0.001 | 68.2 | 80.4 | |
| TIMI+NGAL+BNP†‡ | 80.9 (70.6 to 91.2) | <0.001 | 68.2 | 83.6 | |
| One-year occurrence of combined end point (death and/or hospitalisation for AHF) | |||||
| TIMI score | 74.1 (67.2 to 81.0) | <0.001 | ≥5.5 | 57.4 | 78.9 |
| NGAL (pg/mL)† | 74.2 (67.1 to 81.2) | <0.001 | ≥83.4 | 75.9 | 65.6 |
| BNP (pg/mL)†‡ | 80.6 (72.3 to 89.0) | <0.001 | ≥149.9 | 77.8 | 79.2 |
| TIMI+NGAL‡ | 82.0 (75.9 to 88.1) | <0.001 | 79.6 | 77.9 | |
| TIMI+BNP†‡ | 81.6 (73.3 to 89.8) | <0.001 | 74.1 | 79.2 | |
| TIMI+NGAL+BNP†‡ | 83.1 (74.5 to 91.6) | <0.001 | 74.1 | 84.4 | |
*Statistical significance of AUC.
†Parameters BNP and NGAL were logarithmically transformed with base 2 (log2(×)).
‡BNP on admission is available only for 431 patients.
Bold typeface highlights statistically significant results.
AUC, area under the curve; AHF, acute heart failure; BNP, B-type natriuretic peptide; NGAL, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin; TIMI, thrombolysis in myocardial infarction.