Table 1

Sources of clinical and economic parameters of the model

Event/state/parameter in the model	Baseline event probabilities per cycle	Treatment efficacy: relative reduction in event risks by individual treatment				Acute event or quarterly management cost (£)		Utilities
		Aspirin	ACEI	Statin	Polypill	Acute	Chronic	Acute	Chronic
	Mean (SE)	Mean (95% CI)	Mean (95% CI)	Mean (95% CI)	Polypill	Mean (SE)	Mean (SE)	Mean (SE)	Mean (SE)
Receiving secondary prevention							26.51 (5.30)*^a	0.760 (0.152)^c	0.836 (0.167)^c
CV Death	0.00339 (0.0007)^e	0.87 (0.76 to 0.99)^f	0.74 (0.63 to 0.87)ⁱ	0.75 (0.68 to 0.83)^e		3000 (600)†			0
ACS, non-fatal	0.00474 (0.0009)^e	0.71 (0.60 to 0.83)^h	0.80 (0.70 to 0.91)ⁱ	0.69		1957 (586)^a	205 (41)*^a	0.760 (0.152)^c	0.836 (0.167)^c
Stroke, non-fatal	0.00185 (0.0004)^e	0.74 (0.54 to 1.01)^h	0.71 (0.56 to 0.89)ⁱ	0.72 (0.53 to 0.97)^e		4418 (2100)^a	760 (152)^b	0.629 (0.126)^c	0.692 (0.138)^c
Revascularisation, unplanned	0.00750 (0.0015)^e	0.71 (0.6 to 0.83)^h	0.87 (0.78 to 0.97)ⁱ	0.77 (0.69 to 0.91)^e		4532 (1404)^a		0.780 (0.003)^d
CHF with hospitalisation, non-fatal	0.00154 (0.0003)^g	1 (1 to 1)	0.87 (0.68 to 1.11)ⁱ	0.85 (0.63 to 1.14)^j		3595 (1010)^a	205 (41)*^a	0.629 (0.003)^d	0.800 (0.160)^f
Cost per month (£)		£0.90^k	£1.68^k	£1.73^k	£10.39^l

*Based on the assumption of 2 cardiologist visits per year at 131 GBP per visit. Laboratory or monitoring costs were not included.
†Assumed cost of death: a, NHS reference costs 2012–2013;41 b, Economic burden of stroke in England study, prepared for the Division of Health and Social Care Research;42 c, Ara et al;32 d, Taylor et al;43 e, Ward et al;44 f, Choudhry et al;45 g, Saha et al;46 h, Baigent et al;47 i, HOPE FDA Briefing;48 j, Vale et al;49 k, BNF;50 l, Based on the cost of Spanish ex-factory price Trinomia.
ACS, acute coronary syndrome; ATC, Antithrombotic Trialists Collaboration; CHD, congestive heart disease; CHF, congestive heart failure; CV, cardiovascular; FDA, United States Food and Drug Administration; GBP, British Pound; HOPE, Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation; NHS, National Health Service.