Antibiotic and strain | ARIMA model* (p,d,q) (P,D,Q) | Model R2 | Lag | Coefficient (95% CI)† | T ratio | p Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Macrolide use, DDDs/1000 OBDs | ||||||
CC22, % erythromycin resistance | (1,0,1) (1,0,0) | 0.291 | 0 | 0.088 (0.012 to 0.164) | 2.25 | 0.026 |
CC30, % erythromycin resistance | (2,0,2) (0,0,0) | 0.432 | 5 | 0.098 (0.006 to 0.190) | 2.08 | 0.039 |
CC5 and other, % erythromycin resistance | (1,0,0) (0,0,0) | 0.109 | 0 | 0.110 (0.090 to 0.130) | 11.51 | <0.001 |
Fluoroquinolone use, DDDs/1000 OBDs | ||||||
CC22, % ciprofloxacin resistance | (2,0,2) (1,0,0) | 0.451 | 0 | 0.062 (0.027 to 0.097) | 3.36 | 0.001 |
CC30, % ciprofloxacin resistance | (2,0,2) (1,0,0) | 0.331 | 0 | 0.128 (0.048 to 0.209) | 3.14 | 0.002 |
CC5 and other, % ciprofloxacin resistance | (1,0,2) (0,0,0) | 0.074 | 0 | 0.108 (0.076 to 0.140) | 6.58 | <0.001 |
Clindamycin use, DDDs/1000 OBDs | ||||||
CC22, % clindamycin resistance | (1,0,1) (0,0,0) | 0.298 | 0 | 0.173 (0.137 to 0.208) | 9.76 | <0.001 |
CC30, % clindamycin resistance | (2,0,1) (0,0,0) | 0.691 | 0 | 0.455 (0.067 to 0.843) | 2.30 | 0.023 |
CC5 and other, % clindamycin resistance | (2,0,1) (0,0,0) | 0.176 | 0 | 0.334 (0.175 to 0.493) | 4.11 | <0.001 |
*Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models, in which: p=order (number) of non-seasonal autoregressive terms representing impact of previous values in time-series, d=order of differencing to achieve stationary time-series; q=order of non-seasonal moving average terms representing response to previous disturbances (residual error) in time-series; and P, D, Q reflect orders of seasonal (lag 12) autoregressive, differencing and moving average terms.
†Change in % resistance associated with a +1 DDD/1000 OBDs increase in antibiotic use.
DDDs, defined daily doses; OBDs, occupied bed days.