Adjusted HRs with 95% CIs for seven cancers which occur in men and women in the derivation cohort (blood, bowel, gastro-oesophageal, lung, oral, pancreatic and renal)
| Cancer type | Adjusted HRs in women (95% CI) | Adjusted HRs in men (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Blood* | ||
| Smoking status | ||
| Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Ex-smoker | 1.01 (0.96 to 1.06) | 1.02 (0.98 to 1.07) |
| Light smoker (1–9/day) | 1.20 (1.12 to 1.28) | 1.10 (1.05 to 1.17) |
| Moderate smoker (10–19/day) | 1.22 (1.12 to 1.33) | 1.17 (1.08 to 1.27) |
| Heavy smoker (20+/day) | 1.33 (1.20 to 1.47) | 1.23 (1.14 to 1.34) |
| Other baseline factors | ||
| Type 1 diabetes | 1.51 (1.03 to 2.22) | 1.61 (1.21 to 2.13) |
| Family history of blood cancer | 4.08 (1.53 to 10.87) | 3.92 (1.47 to 10.45) |
| Prior brain cancer | 4.12 (1.03 to 16.49) | NS |
| Prior ovarian cancer | 1.59 (1.08 to 2.33) | NA |
| Prior renal cancer | NS | 1.46 (1.18 to 1.80) |
| Bowel† | ||
| Ethnic group | ||
| White/not recorded | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Indian | 0.35 (0.25 to 0.49) | 0.56 (0.44 to 0.70) |
| Pakistani | 0.47 (0.28 to 0.78) | 0.56 (0.38 to 0.81) |
| Bangladeshi | 0.85 (0.54 to 1.34) | 0.41 (0.25 to 0.69) |
| Other Asian | 0.59 (0.40 to 0.89) | 0.62 (0.44 to 0.87) |
| Caribbean | 0.71 (0.56 to 0.90) | 0.70 (0.57 to 0.86) |
| Black African | 0.69 (0.49 to 0.99) | 0.75 (0.55 to 1.03) |
| Chinese | 0.61 (0.35 to 1.05) | 0.81 (0.51 to 1.28) |
| Other | 0.80 (0.62 to 1.03) | 0.59 (0.45 to 0.77) |
| Smoking status | ||
| Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Ex-smoker | 1.07 (1.03 to 1.12) | 1.06 (1.02 to 1.09) |
| Light smoker (1–9/day) | 1.11 (1.04 to 1.17) | 1.07 (1.01 to 1.13) |
| Moderate smoker (10–19/day) | 1.21 (1.12 to 1.31) | 1.03 (0.93 to 1.13) |
| Heavy smoker (20+/day) | 1.17 (1.06 to 1.30) | 1.13 (1.05 to 1.22) |
| Alcohol | ||
| Non-drinker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Trivial drinker (<1 unit/day) | 1.02 (0.98 to 1.06) | 1.05 (1.00 to 1.10) |
| Light drinker (1–2 units/day) | 1.05 (1.00 to 1.11) | 1.14 (1.08 to 1.20) |
| Moderate drinker (3–6 units/day) | 1.08 (1.01 to 1.16) | 1.30 (1.24 to 1.36) |
| Heavy drinker (7–9 units/day) | 1.38 (1.00 to 1.90) | 1.62 (1.47 to 1.79) |
| Very heavy drinker (>9 units/day) | 1.36 (0.80 to 2.32) | 1.56 (1.33 to 1.83) |
| Other baseline factors | ||
| Family history of bowel cancer | 1.94 (1.62 to 2.32)‡ | 2.18 (1.84 to 2.59)‡ |
| Ulcerative colitis | 1.75 (1.48 to 2.08) | 1.83 (1.58 to 2.11) |
| Colonic polyp | 2.11 (1.62 to 2.76) | 1.51 (1.19 to 1.90) |
| Type 2 diabetes | 1.16 (1.07 to 1.26) | 1.27 (1.20 to 1.35) |
| Prior breast cancer | 1.16 (1.05 to 1.29) | NA |
| Prior uterine cancer | 1.61 (1.24 to 2.11) | NA |
| Prior ovarian cancer | 1.98 (1.48 to 2.65) | NA |
| Prior cervical cancer | 1.74 (1.36 to 2.21) | NA |
| Prior lung cancer | NS | 1.87 (1.32 to 2.65) |
| Prior blood cancer | NS | 1.53 (1.26 to 1.87) |
| Prior oral cancer | NS | 1.62 (1.06 to 2.49) |
| Gastro-oesophageal§ | ||
| Smoking status | ||
| Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Ex-smoker | 1.09 (0.99 to 1.19) | 1.25 (1.18 to 1.32) |
| Light smoker (1–9/day) | 1.78 (1.62 to 1.96) | 1.73 (1.61 to 1.85) |
| Moderate smoker (10–19/day) | 2.05 (1.82 to 2.31) | 1.85 (1.68 to 2.04) |
| Heavy smoker (20+/day) | 2.40 (2.08 to 2.78) | 1.91 (1.73 to 2.11) |
| Alcohol | ||
| Non-drinker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Trivial drinker (<1 unit/day) | 0.89 (0.83 to 0.96) | 0.94 (0.88 to 1.00) |
| Light drinker (1–2 units/day) | 0.91 (0.81 to 1.02) | 0.89 (0.83 to 0.95) |
| Moderate drinker (3–6 units/day) | 0.98 (0.86 to 1.11) | 0.94 (0.88 to 1.00) |
| Heavy drinker (7–9 units/day) | 2.00 (1.28 to 3.13) | 1.24 (1.08 to 1.41) |
| Very heavy drinker (>9 units/day) | 2.00 (0.99 to 4.01) | 1.63 (1.33 to 1.98) |
| Other baseline factors | ||
| Barratt's oesophagus | 3.83 (2.63 to 5.57) | 4.05 (3.30 to 4.97) |
| Peptic ulcer disease | 1.29 (1.12 to 1.49) | 1.25 (1.15 to 1.36) |
| Type 2 diabetes | 1.33 (1.17 to 1.52) | 1.18 (1.08 to 1.29) |
| Prior lung cancer | 2.28 (1.02 to 5.08) | NS |
| Prior blood cancer | 2.14 (1.43 to 3.20) | NS |
| Prior breast cancer | 1.31 (1.09 to 1.56) | NA |
| Prior oral cancer | 3.84 (1.92 to 7.70) | 2.65 (1.65 to 4.27) |
| Prior pancreatic cancer | NS | 4.16 (1.04 to 16.65) |
| Lung¶ | ||
| Ethnic group | ||
| White/not recorded | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Indian | 0.54 (0.36 to 0.80) | 0.36 (0.27 to 0.48) |
| Pakistani | 0.37 (0.16 to 0.82) | 0.40 (0.27 to 0.60) |
| Bangladeshi | 1.18 (0.74 to 1.87) | 0.84 (0.65 to 1.10) |
| Other Asian | 0.69 (0.43 to 1.10) | 0.36 (0.24 to 0.57) |
| Caribbean | 0.52 (0.37 to 0.71) | 0.58 (0.47 to 0.71) |
| Black African | 0.55 (0.32 to 0.95) | 0.45 (0.29 to 0.69) |
| Chinese | 1.16 (0.69 to 1.96) | 0.64 (0.40 to 1.03) |
| Other | 0.62 (0.45 to 0.85) | 0.51 (0.39 to 0.67) |
| Smoking status | ||
| Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Ex-smoker | 1.84 (1.60 to 2.13) | 2.37 (2.04 to 2.76) |
| Light smoker (1–9/day) | 5.67 (5.08 to 6.33) | 5.93 (5.19 to 6.78) |
| Moderate smoker (10–19/day) | 6.57 (5.84 to 7.40) | 7.13 (6.15 to 8.27) |
| Heavy smoker (20+/day) | 11.02 (9.84 to 12.33) | 10.24 (8.94 to 11.74) |
| Alcohol | ||
| Non-drinker | 1.00 | |
| Trivial drinker (<1 unit/day) | NS | 0.91 (0.87 to 0.95) |
| Light drinker (1–2 units/day) | NS | 0.92 (0.87 to 0.97) |
| Moderate drinker (3–6 units/day) | NS | 0.97 (0.93 to 1.02) |
| Heavy drinker (7–9 units/day) | NS | 1.13 (1.03 to 1.25) |
| Very heavy drinker (>9 units/day) | NS | 1.25 (1.09 to 1.43) |
| Other baseline factors | ||
| Family history of lung cancer | 1.32 (1.10 to 1.58) | 1.28 (1.08 to 1.52) |
| Asthma | 1.33 (1.24 to 1.41) | 1.18 (1.11 to 1.26) |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 1.97 (1.80 to 2.15) | 1.92 (1.76 to 2.08) |
| Asbestos | NS | 1.85 (1.54 to 2.22) |
| Prior renal cancer | 1.74 (1.31 to 2.31) | 1.50 (1.30 to 1.74) |
| Prior blood cancer | 1.93 (1.51 to 2.48) | 1.91 (1.61 to 2.26) |
| Prior oral cancer | 2.83 (1.76 to 4.56) | 2.86 (2.15 to 3.80) |
| Prior breast cancer | 1.53 (1.39 to 1.69) | NA |
| Prior uterine cancer | 1.53 (1.12 to 2.09) | NA |
| Prior ovarian cancer | 1.64 (1.17 to 2.29) | NA |
| Prior cervical cancer | 1.58 (1.26 to 1.97) | NA |
| Prior bowel cancer | NS | 1.29 (1.09 to 1.52) |
| Prior gastro-oesophageal cancer | NS | 1.79 (1.28 to 2.49) |
| Oral** | ||
| Smoking status | ||
| Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Ex-smoker | 1.22 (1.06 to 1.41) | 1.15 (1.04 to 1.28) |
| Light smoker (1–9/day) | 2.12 (1.83 to 2.46) | 2.31 (2.09 to 2.56) |
| Moderate smoker (10–19/day) | 2.52 (2.11 to 3.00) | 2.35 (2.04 to 2.70) |
| Heavy smoker (20+/day) | 3.52 (2.86 to 4.33) | 2.95 (2.60 to 3.35) |
| Alcohol | ||
| Non-drinker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Trivial drinker (<1 unit/day) | 1.03 (0.91 to 1.16) | 0.89 (0.79 to 1.00) |
| Light drinker (1–2 units/day) | 1.18 (0.99 to 1.40) | 1.02 (0.90 to 1.15) |
| Moderate drinker (3–6 units/day) | 1.60 (1.35 to 1.90) | 1.36 (1.22 to 1.53) |
| Heavy drinker (7–9 units/day) | 2.86 (1.66 to 4.91) | 2.59 (2.18 to 3.09) |
| Very heavy drinker (>9 units/day) | 4.38 (2.25 to 8.52) | 3.71 (2.99 to 4.59) |
| Other baseline factors | ||
| Prior blood cancer | 4.54 (2.73 to 7.56) | 2.34 (1.51 to 3.63) |
| Prior bowel cancer | NS | 1.62 (1.00 to 2.61) |
| Prior lung cancer | NS | 2.87 (1.29 to 6.40) |
| Prior ovarian cancer | 4.14 (2.15 to 7.97) | NA |
| Pancreas†† | ||
| Smoking status | ||
| Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Ex-smoker | 1.03 (0.94 to 1.13) | 1.09 (1.00 to 1.18) |
| Light smoker (1–9/day) | 1.77 (1.59 to 1.97) | 1.56 (1.41 to 1.73) |
| Moderate smoker (10–19/day) | 1.89 (1.65 to 2.17) | 1.96 (1.70 to 2.27) |
| Heavy smoker (20+/day) | 2.02 (1.71 to 2.39) | 1.94 (1.68 to 2.24) |
| Other baseline factors | ||
| Chronic pancreatitis | 3.64 (2.11 to 6.28) | 5.43 (3.72 to 7.94) |
| Type 2 diabetes | 1.51 (1.31 to 1.74) | 1.85 (1.65 to 2.07) |
| Prior renal cancer | 1.97 (1.14 to 3.40) | NS |
| Prior breast cancer | 1.38 (1.13 to 1.67) | NA |
| Prior blood cancer | NS | 1.71 (1.12 to 2.60) |
| Renal Tract‡‡ | ||
| Smoking status | ||
| Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Ex-smoker | 1.27 (1.19 to 1.37) | 1.23 (1.18 to 1.29) |
| Light smoker (1–9/day) | 1.74 (1.61 to 1.89) | 1.64 (1.56 to 1.72) |
| Moderate smoker (10–19/day) | 2.23 (2.02 to 2.45) | 2.05 (1.91 to 2.20) |
| Heavy smoker (20+/day) | 2.35 (2.08 to 2.64) | 2.24 (2.09 to 2.40) |
| Other baseline factors | ||
| Type 2 diabetes | 1.34 (1.21 to 1.50) | 1.21 (1.13 to 1.28) |
| Prior bowel cancer | 1.44 (1.07 to 1.92) | 1.25 (1.05 to 1.50) |
| Prior lung cancer | NS | 1.78 (1.23 to 2.58) |
| Prior prostate cancer | NA | 1.46 (1.26 to 1.68) |
| Prior blood cancer | 1.63 (1.11 to 2.40) | NS |
| Prior brain cancer | 10.18 (3.28 to 31.58) | NS |
| Prior uterine cancer | 2.12 (1.51 to 2.98) | NA |
| Prior ovarian cancer | 2.62 (1.81 to 3.77) | NA |
| Prior cervical cancer | 2.56 (1.94 to 3.40) | NA |
For fractional polynomial terms and interactions see footnotes and figures 1–5.
*Blood cancer models also included age (2 FP terms) and body mass index (linear) in women and men.
†Bowel cancer models also included age (2 FP terms) and interaction between age and family history in women, and age (2 FP terms), BMI (linear,positive), Townsend (linear, positive) and interaction between age and family history in men.
‡Adjusted HR evaluated at mean age.
§Gastro-oesophageal models also included age (2 FP terms), BMI (2 FP terms) and Townsend (linear, positive) in women and men.
¶Lung cancer models included age (2 FP terms), Townsend (2 FP terms) and BMI (2 FP terms) in women and men?
**Oral cancer models included age (1 FP term for women, 2 FP terms for men), Townsend (linear and positive in women and men) and BMI (2 FP terms for men only).
††Pancreatic cancer models included age (1 FP term in women and men), BMI (linear for women, 2 FP terms for men) and Townsend (linear and positive—women only).
‡‡Renal cancer models included age (2 FP terms in women and men), Townsend (2 FP terms women) and BMI (linear and positive in women and men).
NA, not applicable; NS, not significant.