Baseline characteristics of patients in the derivation and validation cohorts aged 25–84 years
| Derivation men n (%) | Derivation women n (%) | Validation men n (%) | Validation women n (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (years) | 2 447 866 | 2 495 899 | 802 437 | 822 359 |
| 25–34 | 805 109 (32.9) | 870 317 (34.9) | 278 480 (34.7) | 309 425 (37.6) |
| 35–44 | 613 038 (25.0) | 551 468 (22.1) | 201 950 (25.2) | 179 621 (21.8) |
| 45–54 | 425 824 (17.4) | 394 520 (15.8) | 132 729 (16.5) | 121 668 (14.8) |
| 55–64 | 298 448 (12.2) | 297 981 (11.9) | 91 781 (11.4) | 91 285 (11.1) |
| 65–74 | 203 714 (8.3) | 227 761 (9.1) | 64 283 (8.0) | 71 086 (8.6) |
| 75+ | 101 733 (4.2) | 153 852 (6.2) | 33 214 (4.1) | 49 274 (6.0) |
| Mean age (SD) | 44.3 (14.8) | 44.9 (15.9) | 43.8 (14.7) | 44.1 (15.9) |
| Mean Townsend score (SD) | 0.3 (3.6) | 0.2 (3.6) | 0.6 (3.6) | 5 (3.5) |
| Body mass index recorded | 1 903 519 (77.8) | 2 105 539 (84.4) | 621 882 (77.5) | 691 753 (84.1) |
| Mean BMI (SD) | 26.3 (4.2) | 25.7 (5.0) | 26.2 (4.1) | 25.5 (5.0) |
| Ethnicity recorded | 1 380 685 (56.4) | 1 525 005 (61.1) | 462 619 (57.7) | 509 242 (61.9) |
| White/not recorded | 2 231 641 (91.2) | 2 271 520 (91.0) | 725 421 (90.4) | 743 043 (90.4) |
| Indian | 42 771 (1.7) | 37 773 (1.5) | 13 192 (1.6) | 12 376 (1.5) |
| Pakistani | 22 004 (0.9) | 16 893 (0.7) | 8557 (1.1) | 6436 (0.8) |
| Bangladeshi | 17 169 (0.7) | 13 170 (0.5) | 5803 (0.7) | 4235 (0.5) |
| Other Asian | 24 494 (1.0) | 27 750 (1.1) | 7954 (1.0) | 9034 (1.1) |
| Caribbean | 18 553 (0.8) | 23 920 (1.0) | 6989 (0.9) | 8691 (1.1) |
| Black African | 37 003 (1.5) | 40 742 (1.6) | 14 911 (1.9) | 15 729 (1.9) |
| Chinese | 12 493 (0.5) | 17 702 (0.7) | 3564 (0.4) | 5281 (0.6) |
| Other | 41 738 (1.7) | 46 429 (1.9) | 16 046 (2.0) | 17 534 (2.1) |
| Smoking recorded | 2 188 935 (89.4) | 2 349 027 (94.1) | 715 821 (89.2) | 774 509 (94.2) |
| Non-smoker | 1 081 822 (44.2) | 1 433 446 (57.4) | 347 253 (43.3) | 467 440 (56.8) |
| Ex-smoker | 448 480 (18.3) | 392 870 (15.7) | 149 221 (18.6) | 134 426 (16.3) |
| Light smoker (1–9 cigarettes/day) | 351 559 (14.4) | 284 482 (11.4) | 117 904 (14.7) | 96 014 (11.7) |
| Moderate smoker (10–19 Cigarettes/day) | 167 089 (6.8) | 152 115 (6.1) | 55 987 (7.0) | 49 627 (6.0) |
| Heavy smoker (20+ cigarettes /day) | 139 985 (5.7) | 86 114 (3.5) | 45 456 (5.7) | 27 002 (3.3) |
| Alcohol recorded | 1 930 167 (78.9) | 2 084 701 (83.5) | 623 247 (77.7) | 677 551 (82.4) |
| Non-drinker | 433 515 (17.7) | 753 150 (30.2) | 137 452 (17.1) | 238 102 (29.0) |
| Trivial drinker (<1 unit/day) | 585 589 (23.9) | 849 734 (34.0) | 187 131 (23.3) | 275 188 (33.5) |
| Light drinker (1–2 units/day) | 358 713 (14.7) | 295 009 (11.8) | 118 697 (14.8) | 101 967 (12.4) |
| Moderate drinker (3–6 units/day) | 486 003 (19.9) | 176 644 (7.1) | 159 164 (19.8) | 58 675 (7.1) |
| Heavy drinker (7–9 units/day) | 41 223 (1.7) | 5332 (0.2) | 12 651 (1.6) | 1782 (0.2) |
| Very heavy drinker (>9 units/day) | 18 473 (0.8) | 3743 (0.1) | 5964 (0.7) | 1446 (0.2) |
| Family history of cancer | ||||
| Family history of lung cancer | 13 967 (0.6) | 17 453 (0.7) | 4302 (0.5) | 5366 (0.7) |
| Family history of bowel cancer | 29 877 (1.2) | 43 741 (1.8) | 9346 (1.2) | 13 343 (1.6) |
| Family history of renal cancer | 2465 (0.1) | 2767 (0.1) | 952 (0.1) | 1070 (0.1) |
| Family history of breast cancer | NA | 95 807 (3.8) | NA | 32 725 (4.0) |
| Family history of uterine cancer | NA | 2030 (0.1) | NA | 638 (0.1) |
| Family history of ovarian cancer | NA | 5412 (0.2) | NA | 1722 (0.2) |
| Family history of prostate cancer | 4230 (0.2) | NA | 979 (0.1) | NA |
| Prior diagnosis of cancer | ||||
| Prior bowel cancer | 4872 (0.2) | 4330 (0.2) | 1553 (0.2) | 1370 (0.2) |
| Prior pancreatic cancer | 143 (0.0) | 140 (0.0) | 57 (0.0) | 47 (0.0) |
| Prior lung cancer | 1488 (0.1) | 977 (0.0) | 485 (0.1) | 293 (0.0) |
| Prior gastro-oesophageal cancer | 976 (0.0) | 562 (0.0) | 303 (0.0) | 134 (0.0) |
| Prior renal cancer | 4069 (0.2) | 1561 (0.1) | 1263 (0.2) | 499 (0.1) |
| Prior blood cancer | 5953 (0.2) | 4257 (0.2) | 1906 (0.2) | 1399 (0.2) |
| Prior oral cancer | 964 (0.0) | 571 (0.0) | 315 (0.0) | 215 (0.0) |
| Prior brain cancer | 180 (0.0) | 157 (0.0) | 55 (0.0) | 58 (0.0) |
| Prior breast cancer | NA | 25 108 (1.0) | NA | 7781 (0.9) |
| Prior uterine cancer | NA | 1987 (0.1) | NA | 669 (0.1) |
| Prior ovarian cancer | NA | 2242 (0.1) | NA | 725 (0.1) |
| Prior cervical cancer | NA | 3582 (0.1) | NA | 1194 (0.1) |
| Prior prostate cancer | 7778 (0.3) | NA | 2518 (0.3) | NA |
| Comorbidities | ||||
| Type 1 diabetes | 9095 (0.4) | 7207 (0.3) | 2926 (0.4) | 2391 (0.3) |
| Type 2 diabetes | 68 727 (2.8) | 53 070 (2.1) | 21 772 (2.7) | 16 959 (2.1) |
| Barratt’s oesophagus | 3611 (0.1) | 1760 (0.1) | 1083 (0.1) | 543 (0.1) |
| Peptic ulcer disease | 65 467 (2.7) | 34 951 (1.4) | 20 005 (2.5) | 10 404 (1.3) |
| Ulcerative colitis | 8956 (0.4) | 8983 (0.4) | 2923 (0.4) | 2751 (0.3) |
| Chronic pancreatitis | 2438 (0.1) | 1701 (0.1) | 818 (0.1) | 512 (0.1) |
| Colonic polyp | 3146 (0.1) | 2447 (0.1) | 1010 (0.1) | 802 (0.1) |
| Exposure to asbestos | 2960 (0.1) | 341 (0.0) | 885 (0.1) | 89 (0.0) |
| Asthma | 201 250 (8.2) | 225 052 (9.0) | 66 466 (8.3) | 74 440 (9.1) |
| COPD | 28 194 (1.2) | 22 731 (0.9) | 8929 (1.1) | 7056 (0.9) |
| Renal stones | 28 022 (1.1) | 21 640 (0.9) | 8511 (1.1) | 6602 (0.8) |
| Manic depression/schizophrenia | 18 455 (0.8) | 17 100 (0.7) | 6618 (0.8) | 5927 (0.7) |
| Benign breast disease | NA | 78 762 (3.2) | NA | 24 157 (2.9) |
| Polycystic ovarian disease | NA | 31 196 (1.2) | NA | 10 914 (1.3) |
| Endometrial hyperplasia or endometrial polyps | NA | 29 107 (1.2) | NA | 9031 (1.1) |
| Uterine fibroids | NA | 39 075 (1.6) | NA | 12 265 (1.5) |
| Prescribed medication | ||||
| HRT (oestrogen only) | NA | 159 516 (6.4) | NA | 48 521 (5.9) |
| HRT (progesterone only) | NA | 33 638 (1.3) | NA | 9721 (1.2) |
| HRT (combined) | NA | 56 096 (2.2) | NA | 17 119 (2.1) |
| Oral contraceptive | NA | 248 131 (9.9) | NA | 84 565 (10.3) |
| Tamoxifen | NA | 11 899 (0.5) | NA | 3805 (0.5) |
| Antipsychotics | 33 562 (1.4) | 61 595 (2.5) | 10 805 (1.3) | 18 926 (2.3) |
BMI, body mass index; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; HRT, hormone replacement therapy; NA, not applicable.