Table 1

Quantities required for a generalised model for individualising treatment recommendations

ElementGroup-level measuresIndividualised predictions
QuantityMeasured asQuantityPredicted as
BenefitsRRRtrial1−RRtrial or 1−HRtrialARRiRRRtrial×BLRi for benefit*
Harms
fixed
variable

ARItrial
RRItrial

Risktreated−control
RRtrial−1 or HRtrial−1
ARIi
ARItrial used as ARIi
RRItrial×BLRi for harm†
ValuesRVVharm/VbenefitRViProvide a range of RVs centred on typical group-level RV‡
  • *Estimate BLRi for benefit using CPG for individualised prediction of outcome comprising the benefit.

  • †Estimate BLRi for a variable harm using CPG for individualised prediction of outcome comprising the harm.

  • ‡Estimate typical RV from formal utility-based analyses, patient groups or expert opinion.

  • ARItrial, absolute risk increase for a fixed harm; ARRi, ARIi, BLRi, RVi, individualised predicted estimates; BLR, baseline risk (risk in control group); CPG, clinical prediction guide; HR, hazard ratio; RR, relative risk; RRItrial, relative risk increase for a variable harm, from RCT(s) or best evidence; RRRtrial, relative risk reduction observed in RCT(s); RV, relative value.