Pearson's product–moment correlation coefficients (95% CIs) for categories of pandemic preparedness and three influenza-like illness (ILI) outcomes*
| Change in ILI peak height relative to prepandemic period | Change in total ILI cases relative to prepandemic period | Timing of pandemic peak 1 (weeks since WHO pandemic announcement) | Timing of pandemic peak 2 (weeks before mean week of the prepandemic peak) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregate planning score | 0.17 (−0.34 to 0.60) | 0.12 (−0.38 to 0.57) | −0.34 (−0.70 to 0.17) | 0.43 (−0.06 to 0.76) |
| 0.24 (−0.24 to 0.63) | 0.49 (0.05 to 0.77) | −0.37 (−0.71 to 0.10) | 0.32 (−0.15 to 0.68) | |
| Planning and coordination | 0.25 (−0.26 to 0.65) | 0.18 (−0.33 to 0.61) | −0.24 (−0.64 to 0.28) | 0.44 (−0.05 to 0.76) |
| 0.22 (−0.26 to 0.61) | 0.37 (−0.10 to 0.70) | −0.30 (−0.67 to 0.17) | 0.19 (−0.29 to 0.59) | |
| Surveillance | −0.13 (−0.58 to 0.37) | −0.15 (−0.59 to 0.36) | −0.17 (−0.60 to 0.34) | 0.35 (−0.16 to 0.71) |
| −0.02 (−0.47 to 0.44) | 0.35 (−0.12 to 0.70) | −0.28 (−0.65 to 0.20) | 0.13 (−0.34 to 0.56) | |
| Diagnostic | −0.04 (−0.51 to 0.45) | −0.21 (−0.63 to 0.30) | 0.08 (−0.42 to 0.54) | 0.08 (−0.42 to 0.54) |
| −0.11 (−0.54 to 0.36) | 0.31 (−0.17 to 0.67) | −0.06 (−0.50 to 0.41) | −0.01 (−0.46 to 0.45) | |
| Public health interventions | −0.05 (−0.52 to 0.44) | −0.17 (−0.60 to 0.34) | 0.00 (−0.48 to 0.48) | −0.02 (−0.50 to 0.46) |
| −0.03 (−0.48 to 0.43) | 0.30 (−0.18 to 0.66) | −0.07 (−0.51 to 0.39) | 0.10 (−0.37 to 0.53) | |
| Vaccines | 0.17 (−0.34 to 0.60) | 0.21 (−0.30 to 0.63) | −0.40 (−0.74 to 0.10) | 0.42 (−0.08 to 0.75) |
| 0.24 (−0.24 to 0.62) | 0.3 (−0.15 to 0.68) | −0.45 (−0.75 to 0.01) | 0.18 (−0.30 to 0.59) | |
| Antiviral drugs | 0.26 (−0.26 to 0.66) | 0.15 (−0.35 to 0.59) | −0.12 (−0.57 to 0.38) | 0.32 (−0.19 to 0.70) |
| 0.24 (−0.24 to 0.61) | 0.39 (−0.08 to 0.71) | −0.15 (−0.57 to 0.32) | 0.28 (−0.19 to 0.65) | |
| Health service response | 0.15 (−0.26 to 0.66) | 0.13 (−0.37 to 0.57) | −0.30 (−0.68 to 0.21) | 0.45 (−0.04 to 0.76) |
| 0.24 (−0.24 to 0.63) | 0.56 (0.14 to 0.81) | −0.37 (−0.71 to 0.10) | 0.26 (−0.22 to 0.64) | |
| Essential services | 0.47 (−0.01 to 0.78) | 0.50 (0.02 to 0.79) | −0.36 (−0.71 to 0.15) | 0.27 (−0.24 to 0.66) |
| 0.57 (0.15 to 0.81) | 0.48 (0.03 to 0.77) | −0.31 (−0.67 to 0.17) | 0.38 (−0.09 to 0.71) | |
| Communication | 0.04 (−0.45 to 0.51) | −0.02 (−0.49 to 0.47) | −0.34 (−0.71 to 0.17) | 0.18 (−0.33 to 0.61) |
| 0.13 (−0.34 to 0.55) | 0.35 (−0.12 to 0.70) | −0.32 (−0.67 to 0.16) | 0.32 (−0.15 to 0.68) | |
| Operational (putting plans into action) | 0.22 (−0.29 to 0.63) | 0.25 (−0.26 to 0.65) | −0.45 (−0.77 to 0.04) | 0.45 (−0.04 to 0.76) |
| 0.36 (−0.11 to 0.70) | 0.40 (−0.07 to 0.72) | −0.38 (−0.71 to 0.08) | 0.49 (0.05 to 0.77) |
Negative correlations for the first two columns in table would indicate that better planning is associated with reduced pandemic impact, while positive correlations in the third and fourth columns would indicate that better planning is associated with delayed peak timing. Correlations significant at the 5% level are shown in italics.
*The first row of each cell represents the analysis including only 17 countries and the second row additionally includes Lithuania and Romania.