Probabilistic parameters | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Parameter description | Baseline estimate | Variation/ SE (SD) | Distribution | Reference |
Hospitalisation | ||||
Length of stay in hospital estimate | 4.9 days | α 0.1 β 316.81 | γ | 33 |
Relative risk of hospitalisation with hawthorn extract | 1.03651200 | 0.080800494 | Lognormal | 36 |
Mortality | ||||
Excess mortality | β | 28 | ||
Probability of excess mortality given hospitalisation class II | 0.01087776 | α 0.35916667 | β 2.55750000 | |
Probability of excess mortality given no hospitalisation class II | 0.002620782 | α 0.43166667 | β 13.485000 | |
Probability of excess mortality given hospitalisation class III | 0.01791369 | α 0.79666667 | β 3.28666667 | |
Probability of excess mortality given no hospitalisation class III | 0.00674466 | α 0.72833333 | β 8.60500000 | |
Probability of excess mortality given hospitalisation class IV | 0.05333974 | α 0.96416667 | β 1.03583333 | |
Probability of excess mortality given no hospitalisation class IV | 0.00719464 | α 0.16583333 | β 1.83416667 | |
Relative risk of mortality with hawthorn extract | 0.90336300 | 0.09507420 | Lognormal | 36 |
Utility | β | 18 | ||
Utility of NYHA class I no hospitalisation | 0.815 | α 395.88 | β 89.86 | |
Utility of NYHA class II no hospitalisation | 0.72 | α 661.95 | β 257.42 | |
Utility of NYHA class III no hospitalisation | 0.59 | α 359.8075 | β 250.0357 | |
Utility of NYHA class IV no hospitalisation | 0.508 | α 51.77 | β 50.1394 | |
Fixed parameters | ||||
Parameter description | NYHA class I | NYHA class II | NYHA class III | NYHA class IV32 |
Hospitalisation | ||||
Probability for hospitalisation | 0.01518800 | 0.02397800 | 0.02397800 | 0.15397000 |
Probability no hospitalisation | 0.98481200 | 0.97602200 | 0.97602200 | 0.84603000 |
Costs | 34 35 37 | |||
Cost of hospitalisation | $2957.08 | $4435.63 | $4435.63 | $5914.17 |
Total cost for each NYHA class with hospitalisation | $3141.60 | $4639.95 | $4684.53 | $6176.17 |
Cost of each class with no hospitalisation | $130.30 | $150.11 | $194.69 | $207.79 |
Mortality | 38 | |||
Standardised death rate | 6.0 per 1000 | 6.0 per 1000 | 6.0 per 1000 | 6.0 per 1000 |