Table 1

Summary of variables* included in model, and their coefficients, SE and significance

Variable	Coefficient	SE	Significance
Patient age (squared)	6e-5	0	<0.001
Number of emergency hospital discharges in the last year	0.121	0.002	<0.001
Whether there had been a prior emergency hospital discharge in the past 30 days	0.526	0.012	<0.001
Whether the current admission was an emergency admission	0.556	0.011	<0.001
Index of multiple deprivation band for the place of residence (lower super output area)	0.021–0.102	0.013–0.018	<0.001–0.142
History in the prior 2 years (from any hospital episode statistics primary or secondary diagnostic field) of 11 major health conditions drawn from the Charlson comorbidity index
Congestive heart failure	0.095	0.018	<0.001
Peripheral vascular disease	0.104	0.022	<0.001
Chronic pulmonary disease	0.224	0.012	<0.001
Diabetes with chronic complications	0.146	0.032	<0.001
Renal disease	0.198	0.018	<0.001
Metastatic cancer with solid tumour	0.276	0.024	<0.001
Other malignant cancer	0.507	0.015	<0.001
Moderate/severe liver disease	0.267	0.049	<0.001
Other liver disease	0.213	0.031	<0.001
Haemiplegia or paraplegia	0.106	0.033	0.001
Dementia	0.047	0.026	0.071
Hospital-specific variable (range of values in appendix 1)	−0.976 to 0.308	0.043 to 0.206	<0.001 to 0.966
Constant	−2.918	0.032	0

*Full details of the model and definitions are available from http://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk.