Table 1

Details of mortality outcomes included in the model

Outcome (ICD-10 codes)Total deaths, England 2006Deaths <75 years, England 2006, n (%)Meta-analysis detailsNature of risk relationship
Coronary Heart Disease (I20–25)76 80624 364 (31.7)31 Cohort studies,11 total 1 925 106 subjects. Adjusted for up to 18 confounders by study. 23 Studies adjusted for smoking.Protective at all levels of consumption
Stroke (I60–69)45 2197966 (17.6)10 Cohort studies,11 total 723 571 subjects. Adjusted for up to 18 confounders by study. 8 Studies adjusted for smoking.‘U’ or ‘J’ shaped: protection only at low-to-moderate consumption
Hypertensive disease (I10–15)3742995 (26.6)12 Cohort studies,16 27 603 cases. Adjusted for age, BMI and up to 5 others by study. 4 Studies adjusted for smoking.Dose–response increased risk
Diabetes (E11, E14)48311450 (30.0)15 Cohort studies,12 11 959 cases among 369 862 subjects. Adjusted for up to 14 confounders by study. 8 Studies adjusted for smoking.Protective ‘U’ shaped: greatest protection at low-to-moderate consumption
Epilepsy (G40–41)932715 (76.7)4 Case–control studies,17 698 cases, 1162 controls. Not adjusted for smoking. Other adjustments varied by study.Dose–response increased risk
Liver cirrhosis (K70, K74)57835137 (88.8)13 Cohort and case–control studies,18 2383 cases among 1 469 323 subjects. Adjusted for age and gender plus others by study. 11 Studies adjusted for smoking.Dose–response increased risk
Cancer
 Liver (C22)24861305 (52.5)WCRF/AICR 6 cohort studies.8 Adjustment varied by study. 4 adjusted for smoking.Dose–response increased risk
 Mouth, larynx, pharynx (C00–14)15721033 (65.7)WCRF/AICR 2 cohort studies.8 Adjusted for smoking.Dose–response increased risk
 Oesophagus (C15)60683104 (51.2)WCRF/AICR 20 case–control studies.8 Adjustment varied by study. All adjusted for smoking.Dose–response increased risk
 Breast (C50)10 3025644 (54.8)WCRF/AICR 9 cohort studies.8 Adjustment varied by study (including age and reproductive factors). Not adjusted for smoking.Dose–response increased risk
 Colorectum (C18–20)12 8765587 (43.4)WCRF/AICR 9 cohort studies.8 Adjustments varied by study. 6 Adjusted for smoking.Dose–response increased risk
  • BMI, body mass index.