Table 1

Associations between public expenditure on health (PEH) or social care (PES) and care home deaths. Analyses were performed for 0–2 years of interval between PEH or PES and subsequent care home deaths

Lag* (year)Care home deaths per 100 000 persons
PEH per capita (£10)PES per capita (£10)
β (95% CI)p Valueβ (95% CI)p Value
Model 1
 0−0.19 (−0.38 to −0.01)0.05−5.10 (−6.54 to −3.65)<0.0001
 1−0.09 (−0.28 to 0.11)0.39−3.54 (−5.43 to −1.65)0.001
 20.06 (−0.13 to 0.25)0.52−1.38 (−3.54 to 0.79)0.23
Model 2
 0−0.63 (−0.78 to −0.47)<0.0001−5.21 (−6.49 to −3.93)<0.0001
 1−0.49 (−0.65 to −0.33)<0.0001−4.34 (−5.70 to −2.99)<0.0001
 2−0.22 (−0.44 to −0.01)0.05−2.73 (−4.40 to −1.06)0.005
Model 3
 0−0.88 (−1.11 to −0.65)<0.0001−5.59 (−7.06 to −4.11)<0.0001
 1−0.82 (−1.01 to −0.63)<0.0001−5.24 (−6.60 to −2.26)<0.0001
 2−0.55 (−0.78 to −0.32)0.0002−3.82 (−5.39 to −2.26)<0.0001
Model 4
 00.14 (−0.01 to 0.29)0.08−6.23 (−8.10 to −4.39)<0.0001
 10.37 (0.16 to 0.56)0.002−7.05 (−9.55 to −4.56)<0.0001
 20.60 (0.35 to 0.85)0.0001−7.40 (−10.31 to −4.49)<0.0001
  • Number of observations (sex-years) per analysis is 28.

  • Model 1: unadjusted model.

  • Model 2: adjusted for basic state pension per week.

  • Model 3: adjusted for unemployment rate and consumer price index.

  • Model 4: PEH and PES were included in the same model.

  • *Lag year of which PEH or PES preceded mortality rates.