The observed values in paediatric resources and services in China for 2003–2012
| Year | Beds | % (CI) | Paediatrician | % (CI) | Nurse | % (CI) | Outpatient | % (CI) | Inpatient | % (CI) |
| Paediatric in medical institutions | ||||||||||
| 2003 | 152 208 | 6.47 (6.445 to 6.499) | 56 521 | 3.60 (3.570 to 3.630) | 60 883 | 4.81 (4.772 to 4.847) | 156 223 682 | 7.82 (7.815 to 7.817) | 3 765 932 | 6.21 (6.207 to 6.219) |
| 2004 | 157 324 | 6.43 (6.400 to 6.454) | 58 444 | 2.92 (2.900 to 2.946) | 62 930 | 4.81 (4.773 to 4.846) | 172 261 171 | 7.82 (7.819 to 7.821) | 5 362 014 | 8.05 (8.048 to 8.061) |
| 2005 | 162 657 | 6.40 (6.373 to 6.425) | 61 747 | 3.80 (3.773 to 3.827) | 65 063 | 4.82 (4.785 to 4.857) | 200 518 108 | 9.03 (9.027 to 9.029) | 6 958 097 | 9.76 (9.755 to 9.768) |
| 2006 | 169 663 | 6.38 (6.358 to 6.409) | 79 764 | 3.80 (3.773 to 3.827) | 67 865 | 4.76 (4.723 to 4.793) | 221 415 593 | 9.38 (9.376 to 9.379) | 8 554 180 | 10.84 (10.834 to 10.848) |
| 2007 | 233 997 | 6.32 (6.295 to 6.345) | 80 671 | 3.80 (3.774 to 3.826) | 93 599 | 6.07 (6.027 to 6.103) | 238 155 876 | 8.78 (8.779 to 8.781) | 10 036 189 | 10.26 (10.254 to 10.266) |
| 2008 | 258 224 | 6.40 (6.376 to 6.424) | 83 672 | 3.80 (3.774 to 3.826) | 103 290 | 6.25 (6.211 to 6.284) | 275 261 842 | 9.15 (9.149 to 9.151) | 11 825 231 | 10.24 (10.234 to 10.246) |
| 2009 | 285 039 | 6.45 (6.427 to 6.473) | 90 839 | 3.90 (3.875 to 3.925) | 114 016 | 6.15 (6.116 to 6.178) | 310 532 705 | 9.27 (9.269 to 9.271) | 13 771 074 | 10.34 (10.335 to 10.345) |
| 2010 | 314 013 | 6.56 (6.538 to 6.582) | 115 836 | 4.80 (4.773 to 4.827) | 125 605 | 6.13 (6.100 to 6.166) | 330 258 402 | 9.26 (9.259 to 9.261) | 14 735 705 | 10.42 (10.415 to 10.425) |
| 2011 | 341 527 | 6.62 (6.599 to 6.641) | 96 178 | 3.90 (3.876 to 3.924) | 136 611 | 6.09 (6.056 to 6.119) | 354 469 364 | 9.21 (9.209 to 9.211) | 15 909 095 | 10.42 (10.415 to 10.425) |
| 2012 | 381 824 | 6.67 (6.650 to 6.690) | 102 026 | 3.90 (3.877 to 3.923) | 152 730 | 6.12 (6.088 to 6.147) | 403 761 025 | 9.57 (9.569 to 9.571) | 18 565 523 | 10.41 (10.406 to 10.414) |
| Paediatric in hospitals | ||||||||||
| 2003 | 125 958 | 5.55 (5.520 to 5.580) | ‥ | ‥ | 50 383 | 5.42 (5.378 to 5.471) | 84 778 999 | 7.44 (7.438 to 7.442) | 1 759 070 | 4.28 (4.273 to 4.286) |
| 2004 | 130 227 | 5.51 (5.481 to 5.539) | ‥ | ‥ | 52 091 | 5.45 (5.405 to 5.496) | 93 482 176 | 7.53 (7.529 to 7.531) | 2 902 914 | 6.22 (6.213 to 6.227) |
| 2005 | 133 987 | 5.48 (5.451 to 5.509) | ‥ | ‥ | 53 595 | 5.48 (5.433 to 5.523) | 108 816 565 | 8.10 (8.099 to 8.101) | 4 046 758 | 7.97 (7.966 to 7.981) |
| 2006 | 139 798 | 5.46 (5.432 to 5.488) | ‥ | ‥ | 55 919 | 5.41 (5.365 to 5.452) | 120 157 150 | 8.33 (8.329 to 8.331) | 5 190 602 | 9.36 (9.352 to 9.367) |
| 2007 | 142 972 | 5.34 (5.313 to 5.367) | ‥ | ‥ | 57 189 | 5.10 (5.060 to 5.142) | 127 810 140 | 8.08 (8.079 to 8.081) | 6 477 431 | 10.04 (10.033 to 10.047) |
| 2008 | 155 183 | 5.38 (5.354 to 5.406) | ‥ | ‥ | 62 073 | 5.18 (5.143 to 5.223) | 149 692 361 | 8.62 (8.619 to 8.621) | 7 498 235 | 10.17 (10.163 to 10.177) |
| 2009 | 168 271 | 5.39 (5.365 to 5.415) | ‥ | ‥ | 67 308 | 5.07 (5.031 to 5.109) | 165 908 993 | 8.85 (8.849 to 8.851) | 8 579 218 | 10.15 (10.144 to 10.156) |
| 2010 | 186 880 | 5.52 (5.496 to 5.544) | ‥ | ‥ | 74 752 | 5.09 (5.054 to 5.125) | 177 606 813 | 8.92 (8.919 to 8.921) | 9 570 379 | 10.10 (10.094 to 10.106) |
| 2011 | 205 133 | 5.54 (5.517 to 5.563) | ‥ | ‥ | 82 053 | 5.04 (5.007 to 5.074) | 194 177 833 | 8.78 (8.779 to 8.781) | 10 635 060 | 9.92 (9.914 to 9.926) |
| 2012 | 232 116 | 5.58 (5.558 to 5.602) | ‥ | ‥ | 92 846 | 5.07 (5.041 to 5.105) | 224 379 682 | 9.04 (9.039 to 9.041) | 12 404 012 | 9.76 (9.755 to 9.765) |
| Children’s hospitalsin all hospitals | ||||||||||
| 2003 | 12 636 | 0.56 (0.547 to 0.566) | 6146 | 0.73 (0.707 to 0.743) | 8248 | 0.89 (0.869 to 0.907) | 15 616 968 | 1.36 (1.358 to 1.359) | 463 580 | 1.13 (1.125 to 1.131) |
| 2004 | 13 047 | 0.55 (0.543 to 0.561) | 6270 | 0.72 (0.700 to 0.733) | 8271 | 0.87 (0.847 to 0.884) | 17 849 443 | 1.37 (1.368 to 1.369) | 536 109 | 1.15 (1.146 to 1.152) |
| 2005 | 14 353 | 0.59 (0.577 to 0.597) | 6719 | 0.67 (0.653 to 0.685) | 8752 | 0.89 (0.876 to 0.913) | 22 494 152 | 1.68 (1.368 to 1.369) | 623 804 | 1.23 (1.226 to 1.232) |
| 2006 | 15 378 | 0.60 (0.591 to 0.610) | 7339 | 0.70 (0.684 to 0.715) | 9316 | 0.90 (0.883 to 0.919) | 24 001 009 | 1.69 (1.685 to 1.686) | 687 393 | 1.24 (1.237 to 1.242) |
| 2007 | 16 283 | 0.63 (0.624 to 0.643) | 7917 | 0.73 (0.712 to 0.744) | 10 242 | 0.91 (0.896 to 0.931) | 27 081 767 | 1.71 (1.711 to 1.713) | 779 048 | 1.21 (1.205 to 1.210) |
| 2008 | 18 298 | 0.66 (0.647 to 0.666) | 8234 | 0.73 (0.712 to 0.744) | 11 355 | 0.95 (0.931 to 0.966) | 30 834 801 | 1.77 (1.774 to 1.776) | 870 670 | 1.18 (1.178 to 1.183) |
| 2009 | 20 250 | 0.67 (0.663 to 0.681) | 9219 | 0.77 (0.754 to 0.785) | 13 063 | 0.98 (0.966 to 1.002) | 32 622 368 | 1.74 (1.739 to 1.740) | 983 238 | 1.16 (1.161 to 1.165) |
| 2010 | 23 532 | 0.72 (0.711 to 0.729) | 10 037 | 0.80 (0.781 to 0.812) | 15 095 | 1.03 (1.011 to 1.044) | 35 925 210 | 1.80 (1.803 to 1.804) | 1 105 289 | 1.17 (1.164 to 1.168) |
| 2011 | 24 550 | 0.69 (0.682 to 0.699) | 10 631 | 0.81 (0.798 to 0.829) | 16 657 | 1.02 (1.008 to 1.039) | 37 940 466 | 1.72 (1.803 to 1.804) | 1 194 215 | 1.11 (1.112 to 1.116) |
| 2012 | 27 229 | 0.68 (0.676 to 0.692) | 11 525 | 0.82 (0.806 to 0.836) | 19 059 | 1.04 (1.027 to 1.056) | 42 826 966 | 1.72 (1.724 to 1.725) | 1 340 628 | 1.06 (1.053 to 1.057) |
Data were divided into two parts: data for 2003–2010 were used to build the model, and the 2011–2012 data were used to validate the model. A natural log transformation of the dependent variable was conducted to meet the requirements of stationary and normality for the cubic polynomial model. ‘‥’ represents missing data. Part of the data from 2003 to 2006 was calculating data.