Fractions of cancers causally related to body fatness or both tobacco and alcohol attributable to the respective risk factors over 10 years of follow-up
| Behaviour modification | Men and women | Men | Women | |||
| PAF (95% CI) | PAF (95% CI) | PAF (95% CI) | ||||
| Competing risk method | Traditional method‡ | Competing risk method | Traditional method‡ | Competing risk method | Traditional method‡ | |
| Body fatness* | ||||||
| Obese and overweight to healthy weight | 13 (11 to 16) | 13 | 17 (11 to 22) | 17 | 12 (9 to 15) | 12 |
| Obese to overweight | 5 (3 to 7) | 5 | 5 (2 to 8) | 6 | 5 (3 to 7) | 5 |
| Smoking† | ||||||
| Current and formersmokers to never smokers | 13 (11 to 16) | 15 | 22 (17 to 26) | 23 | 7 (3 to 10) | 8 |
| Current smokers to former smokers | 3 (1 to 4) | 4 | 5 (3 to 8) | 7 | 1 (-1, 2) | 1 |
| Alcohol consumption† | ||||||
| >2 drinks/day to ≤2 drinks/day | 6 (5 to 8) | 6 | 9 (6 to 12) | 10 | 2 (0 to 4) | 2 |
| Smoking and alcohol consumption | ||||||
| Current and former smokers to neversmokers and >2 drinks/day to ≤2 drinks/day | 16 (13 to 19) | 20 | 26 (21 to 30) | 31 | 8 (4 to 11) | 10 |
| Current smokers to former smokersand >2 drinks/day to ≤2 drinks/day | 8 (5 to 10) | 10 | 12 (9 to 16) | 16 | 2 (−1 to 5) | 3 |
| Smoking by alcohol consumption | ||||||
| ≤2 drinks/day | ||||||
| Current and former smokers to never smokers | 9 (6 to 12) | 12 | 16 (11 to 20) | 20 | 5 (2 to 9) | 7 |
| Current smokers to former smokers | 1 (0 to 3) | 2 | 3 (0 to 6) | 5 | 0 (−2 to 2) | 0 |
| >2 drinks/day | ||||||
| Current and former smokers to never smokers | 29 (19 to 37) | 36 | 32 (21 to 42) | 41 | 17 (−7 to 35) | 23 |
| Current smokers to former smokers | 9 (4 to 15) | 11 | 10 (4 to 16) | 12 | 7 (−4 to 16) | 8 |
*Cancers causally related to body fatness are oesophageal adenocarcinoma (C15, histology codes 8140–8576), cancers of stomach (C16), colon (C18), rectum (C19-20), liver (C22), gallbladder (C23) and pancreas (C25), postmenopausal breast cancer (C50), cancers of corpus uteri (C54) and ovary (C56), renal-cell carcinoma (C64, histology codes 8050, 8140, 8260, 8270, 8280–8312, 8316–8320, 8340–8344), meningioma (C70), thyroid cancer (C73) and multiple myeloma (C90).
†Cancers causally related to both tobacco and alcohol are cancers of tongue (C01-02), mouth (C03-C06), oropharynx (C10), hypopharynx (C12-C13), other sites in pharynx (C14), oesophagus (C15), colon (C18), rectum (C19-C20), liver (C22) and larynx (C32).
‡PAF for individual contribution of a risk factor is calculated by ∑Prevalence*(HR−1)/[1+∑Prevalence*(HR−1)] using information in table 5. The sum in the numerator is for the modified levels of exposure (eg, current and former smokers or just current smokers), the sum in the denominator is for all levels of exposure and the reference level with HR=1 the target level of modification (eg, never smokers or former smokers). PAF for the combined contribution of two risk factors is calculated by 1−(1−PAF1)*(1−PAF2).
PAF, population attributable fraction.