Studies published in peer-reviewed journals included in Bradford Hill criteria assessment
| Study characteristics | Study assessment | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Study type | First author and year published | Country | Study design | Population or participants | Pricing intervention studied | Outcomes studied | Peer reviewed | Conflict of interest | Quality rating | Bradford Hill criteria met |
| Natural experiments and time series analyses | Bhattacharya 201319 | Russia | Time series analysis of panel data set | Populations of 77 Russian oblasts (provinces), 1970–2000 | Substantial increases in administratively set alcohol prices 1985–1988, along with six other antialcohol measures | Mortality | Yes | Not stated | Strong | SA, CON, TE, PL, CO, EX, |
| Herttua 201520 | Finland | Time series analysis | General population using population registry | Modelled 1% increase in the average minimum price of all alcoholic beverages based on actual price increases adjusted for inflation using Consumer Price Index | Alcohol-related mortality | Yes | None | Strong | SA (not universal findings—subgroup only), CON (counter findings) TE, PL, CO, EX | |
| Stockwell 20122 | Canada | Cross-sectional versus time series analysis of ecological data | Population of British Columbia | Actual minimum price increased over a 20-year period. Study modelled a 10% increase in the average minimum price of all alcoholic beverages adjusted by monthly Consumer Price Index | Alcohol consumption (measured by sales) | Yes | None | Strong | SA, CON, TE, DR, CO, EX | |
| Stockwell 20123 | Canada | Cross-sectional versus time series analysis of ecological data | Population of Saskatchewan | Actual minimum price increased over a 7-year period. Study modelled a 10% increase in the average minimum price of all alcoholic beverages adjusted by monthly Consumer Price Index | Alcohol consumption (measured by sales) | Yes | Not stated | Strong | SA, CON, TE, DR, CO, EX | |
| Stockwell 201321 | Canada | Cross-sectional versus time series analysis of ecological data | Populations of 89 geographic areas in British Columbia | Actual minimum price increased over a 20-year period. Study modelled 10% increase in the average minimum price of all alcoholic beverages adjusted by monthly Consumer Price Index | Alcohol-attributable hospital admissions | Yes | Not stated | Strong | SA, CON, TE, DR, PL, CO, EX | |
| Treisman 201022 | Russia | Secondary analysis of historical data with focus on price changes 1990–1994 | Population of Russia | Price liberalisation of vodka in early 1990s—in 1993, real price of vodka was around 25% of that in 1990 | Mortality | Yes | Not stated | Strong | SA, CON, TE, PL, CO, EX | |
| Wald 198423 | Poland | Analysis of routine data 1970–1981 | Population of Poland | Poor harvest led to high prices, rationing and illegal sales | Alcohol consumption and alcohol-related hospital admissions | Yes | Not stated | Weak | CON, TE, PL, CO, EX | |
| Zhao 201324 | Canada | Cross-sectional versus time series analysis of ecological data | Populations of 16 health service delivery areas in British Columbia, Canada | Actual minimum price increased over a 20-year period. Study modelled 10% increase in the average minimum price of all alcoholic beverages adjusted by monthly Consumer Price Index. Also looked at outlet density | Acute, chronic and wholly alcohol-attributable mortality | Yes | None | Strong | SA, CON, TE, DR, PL, CO, EX | |
| Modelling studies | Brennan 201425 | England | Modelling study using SAPM | The UK national surveys of general population (subgroups of moderate, harmful, hazardous) | MUP of £0.40, £0.45 and £0.50. Ban on below cost selling | Alcohol consumption, consumer spending, 47 health harms, QALYs | Yes | None | Strong | CON, SP, DR, PL, CO |
| Holmes 201426 | England | Modelling study using SAPM | The UK national surveys of general population (subgroups of moderate, harmful, hazardous) | MUP of 45p | Alcohol consumption, consumer spending, 47 health harms, QALYs | Yes | None | Strong | CON, SP, PL, CO | |
| Meier 200927 | The UK | Modelling study using SAPM | The UK national surveys of general population (subgroups of moderate, harmful, hazardous) | Ten pricing policy options, including different levels of MUP (of 33 analysed) | Alcohol consumption, consumer spending, 47 health harms, crime, employment | Yes | None | Strong | CON, SP, DR, PL, CO | |
| Meier 201628 | England | Modelling study using SAPM | The UK national surveys of general population (subgroups of moderate, increasing risk, heavy) | MUP of £0.50 compared with three alcohol taxation interventions | Alcohol consumption in different income and socioeconomic groups | Yes | None | Strong | CON, SP, PL, CO | |
| Purshouse 201029 | England | Modelling study using SAPM | The UK national surveys of general population (subgroups of moderate, harmful, hazardous) | 18 different pricing policies (including MUP) | Alcohol consumption, consumer spending, 47 health harms, QALYs | Yes | None | Strong | CON, SP, DR, PL, CO | |
| Sharma 201630 | Australia | Counterfactual analysis | Representative sample of households (n=884) completing 12-month Homescan shopping survey | MUP of A$2 | Alcohol purchasing and consumption | Yes | None | Strong | CON, SP, PL, CO | |
| Vandenberg 201631 | Australia | Modelling study | Representative sample of households (n=885) completing Homescan shopping survey | MUP of A$1 compared with a specific alcohol tax | Alcohol purchasing and consumption | Yes | None | Strong | CON, SP, PL, CO | |
| Cross-sectional studies | Black 201132 | Scotland | Cross-sectional survey | 377 hospital patients with serious alcohol problems | The UK alcohol units purchased below proposed MUP of £0.40p/£0.50p | Alcohol consumption | Yes | None | Moderate | SA CON, DR, PL, CO |
| Callinan 201533 | Australia | Cross-sectional survey | Drinkers 18+ participating in Australian International Alcohol Control study (n=1681) | Australian standard drinks purchased below proposed minimum prices of A$0.80/A$1.00/A$1.25 | Alcohol consumption | Yes | Not stated | Moderate | SA, CON, DR, PL, CO | |
| Cousins 201634 | Ireland | Cross-sectional survey | 3187 adults in 2013 National Alcohol Diary Survey | Alcohol units purchased below proposed minimum price of €1.00 | AUDIT-C score | Yes | None | Strong | SA, CON, PL, CO | |
| Crawford 201235 | England | Cross-sectional survey | 515 members of the public | The UK alcohol units purchased below proposed MUP of £0.50 | AUDIT score | Yes | None | Moderate | SA, CON, PL, CO | |
| Falkner 201536 | New Zealand | Cross-sectional survey | 115 adults undergoing alcohol detoxification | New Zealand standard drinks purchased below proposed minimum prices of NZ$1.00/NZ$1.10/NZ$1.20 | Alcohol consumption | Yes | No | Moderate | SA, CON, PL, CO | |
| Forsyth 201437 | Scotland | Cross-sectional survey | Shopkeepers of 144 off licences in Glasgow | MUP of £0.50 | Products affected and hospital admissions | Yes | None | Weak | CON, PL (weakly), CO | |
| Ludbrook 201238 | The UK | Cross-sectional survey | Expenditure and Food Survey data from 20062008 (n=18 624) | Purchasers of alcohol <£0.45 per unit | Income of purchasers of cheap alcohol | Yes | Not stated | Moderate | SA, CON, PL, CO | |
| Sharma 201439 | Australia | Cross-sectional survey | Representative sample of households (n=885) completing shopping survey | MUP of A$1 and taxation | Alcohol consumption (measured by projected sales) | Yes | None | Moderate | SA, CON, DR, PL, CO | |
| Sheron 201440 | The UK | Cross-sectional survey | Adult patients in a liver unit of a hospital (n=204) | The UK alcohol units purchased below £0.50 | Alcohol consumption | Yes | Not stated | Moderate | SA, CON, DR, PL, CO | |
| Intervention studies | Babor 197841 | The USA | Trial (not randomised) | 34 male volunteers in live-in research facility | ‘Happy hour’ with a reduction in set price of alcohol for one group of participants | Alcohol consumption | Yes | Not stated | Weak | SA, CON, SP, TE, CO, EX |
| Qualitative studies | Seaman 201342 | Scotland | Qualitative study | 130 participants aged 16–30 | Hypothetical minimum price increases | Alcohol consumption and substitution with other substances | Yes | None | Moderate | CON, CO |
| Systematic reviews | Wagenaar 200943 | Worldwide | Systematic review and meta-analysis | Studies tended to cover general population | Alcohol price and taxation interventions studied together | Alcohol consumption (measured by alcohol sales or self-reported consumption) | Yes | None | Strong | AN |
| Wagenaar 201044 | Worldwide | Systematic review and meta-analysis | Studies tended to cover general population | Alcohol price and taxation interventions studied together | Alcohol-related morbidity (disease, injury, suicide, traffic crashes, sexually transmitted diseases, other drug use, crime and misbehaviour) and mortality | Yes | Not stated | Strong | AN | |
Abbreviations for the Bradford Hill criteria: AN, analogy; CO, coherence; AUDIT, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test; CON, consistency; DR, dose–response; EX, experiment; MUP, Minimum Unit Pricing; PL, plausibility; SA, strength of the association; SAPM, Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model; SP, specificity; TE, temporality; QALYs, Quality Adjusted Life Years.