Transition probability parameters used in the model
| Parameter | Mean estimate | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline monthly hazard rate of all-cause mortality for the first 8 years of the model (<75 years) | 0.009 | LN (−4.718, 0.012 SE) | CPRD-ONS |
| HR (≥75 vs <75 years) of all-cause mortality for the first 8 years of the model | 2.801 | LN (1.030, 0.014 SE) | CPRD-ONS |
| 3-monthly risk of all-cause mortality in general population | Age variant | Fixed | ONS23 |
| RR (HF patients vs general population) of all-cause mortality | 3.14 | β (199, 94)* HF/ β (176, 410)* gen. pop. | van Jaarsveld et al24 |
| RR (HFpEF patients vs HFrEF patients) of all-cause mortality | 0.78 | β (766, 2865)* HFpEF/ β (584, 1621)* HFrEF | Nichols et al25 |
| BNP HR of all-cause mortality for HFrEF patients <75 years | 0.68 | LN (−0.386, 0.177 SE) | Brunner-La Rocca et al6 |
| BNP HR of all-cause mortality for HFpEF patients <75 years | 0.76 | LN (−0.274, 0.487 SE) | Brunner-La Rocca et al6 |
| BNP HR of all-cause mortality for HFrEF patients ≥75 years | 0.87 | LN (−0.139, 0.148 SE) | Brunner-La Rocca et al6 |
| Baseline monthly hazard rate of all-cause hospitalisation (<75 years) | 0.066 | LN (−2.711, 0.008 SE) | CPRD-ONS |
| HR (≥75 vs <75 years) of all-cause hospitalisation | 1.248 | LN (0.222, 0.010 SE) | CPRD-ONS |
| BNP HR of all-cause hospitalisation | 0.94 | LN (−0.062, 0.062 SE) | Troughton et al7 |
*β parameters were determined empirically.
CPRD, Clinical Practice Research Database; HES, Hospital Episode Statistics; LN, log normal; ONS, Office for National Statistics; RR, relative risk.