ARIMA models for the infectious diseases
| Disease | Identification | AIC | BIC | MAPE | MSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFMD | ARIMA (0,0,0)×(1,1,0)12 | 260.17 | 262.02 | 0.3497 | 8.8720 |
| ARIMA (0,0,0)×(1,1,0)12 | 260.81 | 264.51 | |||
| ARIMA (0,0,0)×(1,1,0)12 | 267.87 | 269.72 | |||
| ARIMA (0,0,0)×(1,1,0)12 | 264.79 | 266.65 | |||
| Diarrhoea | ARIMA (1,0,1)×(0,1,1)12 | 113.73 | 119.28 | 0.6838 | 3.4459 |
| ARIMA (1,0,0)×(0,1,0)12 | 137.59 | 139.44 | |||
| ARIMA (0,0,1)×(0,1,0)12 | 128.35 | 130.20 | |||
| ARIMA (1,0,0)×(1,1,0)12 | 120.50 | 124.21 | |||
| ARIMA (0,0,1)×(1,1,0)12 | 117.07 | 120.79 | |||
| Mumps | ARIMA (0,0,1)×(0,1,1)12 | 54.13 | 57.83 | 0.5417 | 0.6300 |
| ARIMA (0,0,1)×(0,1,1)12 | 64.16 | 66.01 | |||
| ARIMA (0,0,2)×(0,1,0)12 | 58.00 | 60.00 | |||
| ARIMA (0,0,2)×(0,1,1)12 | 53.23 | 56.93 | |||
| Influenza | Become white noise after differencing | ||||
| Conjunctivitis | ARIMA (0,0,1)×(0,1,1)12 | −120.65 | −116.95 | 0.1638 | 0.1091 |
| ARIMA (0,0,1)×(0,1,0)12 | −103.13 | −101.28 | |||
| ARIMA (1,0,0)×(0,1,0)12 | −94.49 | −92.64 | |||
| ARIMA (1,0,0)×(1,1,0)12 | −102.63 | −98.93 | |||
| ARIMA (2,0,0)×(0,1,0)12 | −99.17 | −95.47 | |||
| Rubella | ARIMA (0,0,1)×(0,1,1)12 | −34.53 | −29.68 | 0.6948 | 0.1215 |
| ARIMA (0,0,1)×(0,1,0)12 | −31.54 | −29.68 | |||
| ARIMA (0,0,1)×(1,1,0)12 | −33.75 | −30.05 | |||
| Hydatid | Become white noise after differencing | ||||
| Typhus | ARIMA (0,0,1)×(0,1,1)12 | −401.92 | −398.22 | 0.1819 | 0.0021 |
| ARIMA (1,0,0)×(0,1,0)12 | −384.83 | −382.83 | |||
| ARIMA (0,0,1)×(0,1,0)12 | −391.05 | −389.20 | |||
| ARIMA (1,0,0)×(1,1,0)12 | −393.26 | −389.57 | |||
| ARIMA (1,0,0)×(0,1,1)12 | −397.08 | −393.38 | |||
| ARIMA (0,0,1)×(1,1,0)12 | −400.224 | −396.524 | |||
| Leprosy | ARIMA (0,0,1)×(0,1,0)12 | −429.84 | −427.99 | 0.4767 | 0.0035 |
| ARIMA (1,0,0)×(0,1,0)12 | −414.98 | −413.14 | |||
| Kala-azar | ARIMA (1,0,0)×(0,1,1)12 | −531.63 | −527.93 | 0.6837 | 0.0021 |
| ARIMA (1,0,0)×(0,1,0)12 | −530.26 | −528.40 | |||
| ARIMA (0,0,1)×(0,1,0)12 | −525.32 | −523.47 | |||
| ARIMA (0,0,1)×(0,1,1)12 | −527.16 | −523.46 | |||
The final ARIMA model selected is highlighted in bold.
AIC, Akaike information criterion; ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average; HFMD, hand, foot and mouth disease; MAPE, mean absolute percentage error; MSE, mean square error.