Key model outputs
| Incident cases | AIDS deaths | New HIV infections in 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current care engagement (with implementation of early ART guidance)* | 794 000 (95% UR 571 000–1 104 000) (reference) | 689 000 (95% UR 468 000–976 000) (reference) | 46 000 (95% UR 29 000–71 000) (62% reduction from current yearly incident cases†) |
| 90-90-90 by 2020 | 415 000 (95% UR 289 000–588 000) (48% reduction) | 280 000 (95% UR 194 000–404 000) (59% reduction) | 19 000 (95% UR 12 000–30 000) (84% reduction from current yearly incident cases†) |
| 90-90-90 by 2025‡ | 583 000 (95% UR 479 000–715 000) (27% reduction) | 488 000 (95% UR 379 000–623 000) (29% reduction) | 21 000 (95% UR 14 000–31 000) (83% reduction from current yearly incident cases†) |
| 90-90-90 by 2030‡ | 709 000 (95% UR 501 000–893 000) (11% reduction) | 617 000 (95% UR 406 000–789 000) (10% reduction) | 24 000 (95% UR 14 000–32 000) (80% reduction from current yearly incident cases†) |
*We assumed initiation of ART irrespective of CD4 count as per recent international guidance. In our sensitivity analysis, we modelled a scenario where India does not implement these recommendations and continues a policy of deferred ART initiation (at CD4≤350 cells/mm3). In this scenario, we project that 979 000 new HIV infections and 754 000 AIDS-related deaths would occur over 15 years, with 57 000 new HIV infections in 2030.
†Relative reduction compared to 120 000 yearly HIV infections currently.31
‡We modelled scenarios of delayed achievement of 90-90-90 targets by 5 or 10 years by assuming that improvements begin in 2020 or 2025, respectively. Model inputs to achieve these scenarios were calibrated to achieve 90-90-90 outcomes by 2025 and 2030, respectively.
ART, antiretroviral therapy; PLWH, persons living with HIV.