Table 3

Results of regression analysis with autoregressive time series errors including the weekly number of newspaper articles with lags between t-6 and t-10 in the model (n=208)

 Lag of the number of newspaper articles: t-10Lag of the number of newspaper articles: t-9Lag of the number of newspaper articles: t-8
β (SE)p Valueβ (SE)p Valueβ (SE)p Value
Intercept368.878 (123.337)0.003351.070 (117.458)0.003339.209 (116.956)0.004
Influenza incidence in the previous week (t-1)0.767 (0.047)<0.00010.774 (0.047)<0.00010.780 (0.047)<0.0001
Temperature (t-1)*36.882 (9.969)0.00038.066 (9.939)0.00037.806 (9.898)0.000
Humidity (t-1)†−28.380 (14.065)0.045−29.327 (14.192)0.040−28.712 (14.208)0.045
Holiday (t-1)‡−94.488 (27.104)0.001−93.686 (27.405)0.001−91.956 (27.491)0.001
Number of newspaper articles−0.301 (0.103)0.004−0.200 (0.067)0.003−0.156 (0.055)0.005
Years (referent: 1999–2000)
 2000–2001−111.886 (82.370)0.176−111.243 (74.386)0.136−107.746 (73.130)0.142
 2001–2002−38.477 (79.423)0.629−44.427 (71.069)0.533−46.335 (69.809)0.508
 2002–200338.999 (80.179)0.62743.390 (71.866)0.54745.184 (70.607)0.523
 2003–200445.599 (80.034)0.57028.392 (71.268)0.69124.973 (69.902)0.721
 2004–200538.287 (79.966)0.63329.939 (71.612)0.67628.578 (70.361)0.685
 2005–200676.095 (81.696)0.35358.760 (72.443)0.41851.788 (70.924)0.466
 2006–200775.647 (80.052)0.34661.610 (71.628)0.39156.836 (70.421)0.421
Months (referent: 10–12)57.754 (73.250)0.43152.141 (70.866)0.46347.553 (71.215)0.505
R2=0.896R2=0.897R2=0.896
Autoregressive time series errorset=0.615et-1−0.201et-2 −0.201et-5+γtet=0.586et-1−0.179et-2 −0.151et-4−0.152et-6+γtet=0.585et-1−0.190et-2 −0.151et-4−0.161et-6+γt
Lag of the number of newspaper articles: t-7Lag of the number newspaper articles: t-6
β (SE)p Valueβ (SE)p Value
Intercept334.126 (117.415)0.005321.560 (121.721)0.009
Influenza incidence in the previous week (t-1)0.783 (0.047)<0.00010.769 (0.048)<0.0001
Temperature (t-1)*37.779 (9.940)0.00039.070 (10.006)0.000
Humidity (t-1)†−27.862 (14.249)0.052−26.292 (14.058)0.063
Holiday (t-1)‡−93.051 (27.551)0.001−91.093 (27.037)0.001
Number of newspaper articles−0.122 (0.047)0.011−0.113 (0.047)0.018
Years (referent: 1999–2000)
 2000–2001−104.909 (73.817)0.157−105.106 (82.654)0.205
 2001–2002−47.225 (70.503)0.504−45.431 (79.834)0.570
 2002–200347.382 (71.316)0.50751.897 (80.651)0.521
 2003–200421.956 (70.493)0.75627.686 (79.757)0.729
 2004–200529.634 (71.060)0.67736.537 (80.424)0.650
 2005–200645.527 (71.368)0.52450.411 (80.664)0.533
 2006–200755.491 (71.187)0.43759.983 (80.817)0.459
Months (referent: 10–12)39.282 (71.603)0.58433.599 (73.072)0.646
R2=0.895R2=0.895
Autoregressive time series errorset=0.589et-1−0.192et-2 −0.153et-4−0.155et-6+γtet=0.629et-1−0.210et-2 −0.210et-5+γt

  • *Number of days during which the lowest temperature was lower than 10°C in the previous week (t-1).

  • †Number of days during which the lowest humidity was higher than 60% in the previous week (t-1).

  • ‡Number of holidays in the previous week (t-1).