Associations between hospital episodes and primary care factors: population-attributable fractions
| Unadjusted PAF (95% CI)* | p Value | Adjusted PAF (95% CI)† | p Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patient population factors | ||||
| IMD | 0.089 (0.073 to 0.106) | 4.9×10−24 | 0.084 (0.067 to 0.100) | 7.3×10−22 |
| Patient ethnicity (% white) | 0.009 (−0.009 to 0.027) | 0.32 | −0.004 (−0.032 to 0.023) | 0.78 |
| Practice morbidity index (registrations/1000 patients) | 0.041 (0.024 to 0.059) | 5.8×10−6 | 0.175 (−0.053 to 0.354) | 0.12 |
| Practice factors | ||||
| GP supply (FTE/1000 patients) | −0.014 (−0.033 to 0.004) | 0.13 | −0.016 (−0.026 to −0.005) | 0.0046 |
| Handedness of practice | 0.001 (−0.002 to 0.003) | 0.64 | 0.001 (−0.002 to 0.005) | 0.44 |
| GPs >50 years (%) | −0.041 (−0.089 to 0.005) | 0.082 | −0.023 (−0.072 to 0.024) | 0.35 |
| GPs with non-UK qualifications (%) | −0.007 (−0.029 to 0.014) | 0.51 | −0.035 (−0.058 to −0.012) | 0.0025 |
| Female GPs (%) | 0.022 (−0.032 to 0.073) | 0.42 | 0.049 (−0.024 to 0.117) | 0.19 |
| QOF indicator achievement (%) | ||||
| Total QOF points | −0.002 (−0.018 to 0.013) | 0.78 | −0.021 (−0.042 to 0.000) | 0.045 |
| PE07 | 0.041 (−0.012 to 0.092) | 0.12 | 0.008 (−0.055 to 0.067) | 0.80 |
| PE08 | 0.062 (0.003 to 0.118) | 0.04 | 0.031 (−0.039 to 0.096) | 0.37 |
| CHD06 | −0.006 (−0.094 to 0.074) | 0.88 | −0.072 (−0.208 to 0.049) | 0.26 |
| CHD08 | −0.033 (−0.171 to 0.088) | 0.61 | −0.135 (−0.317 to 0.021) | 0.094 |
| STROKE06 | 0.058 (−0.008 to 0.120) | 0.086 | 0.076 (−0.008 to 0.153) | 0.075 |
| STROKE08 | 0.039 (−0.064 to 0.132) | 0.44 | 0.031 (−0.088 to 0.137) | 0.59 |
| DM17 | 0.125 (−0.007 to 0.240) | 0.063 | 0.128 (−0.023 to 0.257) | 0.092 |
| DM26 | 0.370 (0.222 to 0.490) | 1.8×10−5 | 0.372 (0.218 to 0.496) | 3.1×10−5 |
| DM30 | −0.031 (−0.120 to 0.050) | 0.46 | −0.144 (−0.280 to −0.022) | 0.02 |
| BP05 | 0.073 (−0.086 to 0.208) | 0.35 | 0.138 (−0.069 to 0.304) | 0.18 |
| MED12 | 0.001 (−0.002 to 0.004) | 0.55 | 0.000 (−0.003 to 0.003) | 0.98 |
| RECORD09 | 0.005 (0.000 to 0.009) | 0.048 | 0.005 (−0.000 to 0.009) | 0.053 |
Bold typeface denotes p<0.05. Unadjusted and adjusted PAFs associated with each primary care factor are displayed. Each fraction refers to the difference between the baseline scenario in table 1, and the sample scenario.
*Adjusted for practice, patient population age and sex.
†Adjusted for patient population age, sex, ethnicity, morbidity score and IMD, GP age, sex and country of qualification, and practice list size, handedness and QOF achievement on the indicators listed.
FTE, full-time equivalent; GP, general practitioner; IMD, Index of Multiple Deprivation; PAF, population attributable fraction; QOF, Quality and Outcomes Framework.