Elsevier

The Lancet

Volume 373, Issue 9676, 16–22 May 2009, Pages 1693-1733
The Lancet

The Lancet Commissions
Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60935-1Get rights and content

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Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century

Effects of climate change on health will affect most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. During this century, earth's average surface temperature rises are likely to exceed the safe threshold of 2°C above preindustrial average temperature. Rises will be greater at higher latitudes, with medium-risk scenarios predicting 2–3°C rises by 2090 and 4–5°C rises in northern Canada, Greenland, and Siberia. In this report, we have

Climate science and the effect of climate change on health

In 1896, the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius suggested that human activity could substantially warm the earth by adding CO2 to the atmosphere. His predictions were subsequently independently confirmed by Thomas Chamberlin.2 At that time, however, such effect on human beings was thought to be dwarfed by other influences on global climate, such as sunspots and ocean circulation. However, these observations went unappreciated until recently.

The establishment of the

Management of the health effects of climate change

Climate change will lead to adverse health effects in many ways. If we are about to take effective action to keep health effects of climate change to a minimum, we need to understand the consequences of climate change on health and the possibilities for change or adaptation. In the case, for example, of health threats through changing patterns of disease due to insect-borne infections, various responses are possible—such as vector control, promotion of mosquito nets, new vaccines, or rapid and

A policy response framework

Climate change is a real threat to global health and wellbeing, and is contributing to mortality, especially for people living in poverty and lacking access to essential health care. A 2°C rise will result in insecurity for millions of people in terms of food, water, or shelter, with the risk of many additional deaths.

No countries will be immune from the health effects of climate change. For example, the hurricane Katrina in the USA and the deaths caused by the 2003 heatwave in Europe show that

Conclusions and recommendations

This report raises many challenging and urgent questions for politicians, civil servants, academics, health professionals, NGOs, pressure groups, and local communities. Climate change is potentially the biggest global health threat in the 21st century. Our response requires a new public health movement that is multidisciplinary and multisectoral, and that leads to coordinated thinking and action across governments, international agencies, NGOs, and academic institutions. Any adaptation

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