Elsevier

The Lancet

Volume 370, Issue 9594, 6–12 October 2007, Pages 1253-1263
The Lancet

Series
Food, livestock production, energy, climate change, and health

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61256-2Get rights and content

Summary

Food provides energy and nutrients, but its acquisition requires energy expenditure. In post-hunter-gatherer societies, extra-somatic energy has greatly expanded and intensified the catching, gathering, and production of food. Modern relations between energy, food, and health are very complex, raising serious, high-level policy challenges. Together with persistent widespread under-nutrition, over-nutrition (and sedentarism) is causing obesity and associated serious health consequences. Worldwide, agricultural activity, especially livestock production, accounts for about a fifth of total greenhouse-gas emissions, thus contributing to climate change and its adverse health consequences, including the threat to food yields in many regions. Particular policy attention should be paid to the health risks posed by the rapid worldwide growth in meat consumption, both by exacerbating climate change and by directly contributing to certain diseases. To prevent increased greenhouse-gas emissions from this production sector, both the average worldwide consumption level of animal products and the intensity of emissions from livestock production must be reduced. An international contraction and convergence strategy offers a feasible route to such a goal. The current global average meat consumption is 100 g per person per day, with about a ten-fold variation between high-consuming and low-consuming populations. 90 g per day is proposed as a working global target, shared more evenly, with not more than 50 g per day coming from red meat from ruminants (ie, cattle, sheep, goats, and other digastric grazers).

Introduction

Food provides energy and nutrients, and its acquisition requires the expenditure of energy. In post-hunter-gatherer societies, with progressively increasing inputs of extra-somatic energy, the scale of catching, gathering, and producing food has been greatly expanded and methods intensified. Today, relations between energy, food, and health have become complex and multifaceted, raising serious policy concerns at national and international levels.

Substantial and widespread public-health problems of under-nutrition and over-nutrition exist—often coexisting within the same population. Meanwhile, the world's agricultural sector, especially livestock production, accounts for about a fifth of total greenhouse-gas emissions, thus contributing to climate change and its effects on health, including on regional food yields. Policy responses to the connections between food production, energy, climate, and health should include countering the world's rapidly increasing consumption of meat, which poses health risks by exacerbating climate change and by direct contribution to the causation of certain diseases. These linkages are explored in this paper, and recommendations for policy are made.

The story of world food production and associated changes in population health over recent centuries comprises both good and bad news. There is much good news: food production capacity has increased greatly; maternal and child nutrition in high-income populations and groups has improved; health and life expectancies have increased, at least partly because of nutritional gains; and refrigeration, transport, and open markets have increased year-round access to healthy foods for many populations.

Meanwhile, health risks are also accruing: the expansion of food production is depleting land cover and biodiversity, with diverse consequences for human wellbeing and health; major elemental cycles are being disrupted (eg, fertiliser use has vastly increased the concentration of bioactive nitrogen compounds in the global environment); industrial food refining, marketing, and over-consumption increase the risks of some non-communicable diseases; and fossil fuel inputs to modern food systems, together with other aspects of crop production and animal husbandry, contribute substantially to greenhouse-gas emissions.

Key messages

  • Greenhouse-gas emissions from the agriculture sector account for about 22% of global total emissions; this contribution is similar to that of industry and greater than that of transport. Livestock production (including transport of livestock and feed) accounts for nearly 80% of the sector's emissions

  • Methane and nitrous oxide (which are both potent greenhouse gases and closely associated with livestock production) contribute much more to this sector's warming effect than does carbon dioxide

  • Halting the increase of greenhouse-gas emissions from agriculture, especially livestock production, should therefore be a top priority, because it could curb warming fairly rapidly. However, livestock production is projected, on current trends, to increase substantially over the next four decades, mainly in countries of low or middle income

  • Available technologies for reduction of emissions from livestock production, applied universally at realistic costs, would reduce non-carbon dioxide emissions by less than 20%. We therefore advocate a contraction and convergence strategy to reduce consumption of livestock products, mirroring the widely supported strategy proposed for greenhouse-gas emissions in general. Contraction of consumption in high-income countries per head would then define the lower, common, ceiling to which low-income and middle-income countries could also converge

  • Assuming a 40% increase in global population by 2050 and no advance in livestock-related greenhouse-gas reduction practices, global meat consumption would need to fall to an average of 90 g per person per day just to stabilise emissions from this sector. Such a decrease would require a substantial reduction of meat consumption in industrialised countries and constrained growth in demand in developing countries, especially of red meat from ruminant (methane-producing) animals

  • A substantial contraction in meat consumption in high-income countries should benefit health, mainly by reducing the risk of ischaemic heart disease (especially related to saturated fat in domesticated animal products), obesity, colorectal cancer, and, perhaps, some other cancers. An increase in the consumption of animal products in low-intake populations, towards the proposed global mean figure (convergence), should also benefit health

  • The resultant gains in health and environmental sustainability should help to offset any (initial) discomforts from restrictions on some popular foods and altered dietary customs. Replacing ruminant red meat with meat from monogastric animals or vegetarian-farmed fish would reduce methane production and lower the pressures on wild fisheries as sources of fishmeal for aquaculture

  • Climate change will, itself, affect food yields around the world unevenly. Although some regions, mostly at mid-to-high latitude, could experience gains, many (eg, in sub-Saharan Africa) are likely to be adversely affected, with impairment of both nutrition and incomes. Compensating vulnerable populations for this and other climate-mediated harm caused by other populations should be an important element of global climate change policy

  • Global population growth is continuing, although slowing. The eventual peak size is not predetermined: it can be lowered by education, leadership, and wider contraceptive availability. Slower population growth will help achieve the Millennium Development Goals and will limit population size, climate change, and the environmental effects of food production

The other great deficit in relation to the interaction of food systems, nutrition, and health is the persistence of hunger and macronutrient under-nutrition in about 13% of the world's population (850 million people). Although this topic is beyond the scope of this paper, we note that today's combination of a globalised economic system with persistent economic disparities between rich and poor, and the depletion of the environmental resource base for food production on land and at sea, militates against reduction of this basic public-health problem.

We review the history of human beings' quest for food, noting how it has brought health gains from food abundance and health losses from chronic or intermittent food shortages and dietary imbalances. We review the prospects for food production, environmental sustainability, and health in view of human-induced adverse changes in the world's environment, especially climate change. We conclude by identifying the two most important contemporary policy challenges related to our theme: reducing the contribution of food production and distribution systems (especially those for meat) to global greenhouse-gas emissions, and protecting the food supplies, wellbeing, and health of vulnerable populations from being harmed by climate change. Enlightened policy responses would both benefit health and enhance sustainability.

Key indicators

Strategy for reduction of agriculture-related greenhouse-gas emissions

National and international climate change policies all accept a target that greenhouse-gas emissions from agriculture in 2050 should be limited to no more than their 2005 levels. This acceptance recognises that this target would necessitate a reduction in the projected globally aggregated demand for animal products to an average (and more evenly shared) per-head intake of, at most, 90 g meat per day. Not more than 50 g of this should come from red meat from ruminant animals. Acceptability of this policy should be enhanced by the expected health gains, both for current high-consuming populations, as their consumption reduces, and for low-consuming populations, as their consumption increases to an agreed, globally shared, but modest, level. This proposal could well prove to be too conservative, but has been formulated with the aim of furthering debate in this largely overlooked area of climate-change mitigation policy.

Short term: 2015

High-income countries should develop incentive structures and educative measures to be introduced between now and 2015, to initiate substantial contractions in the effects of the production and consumption of animal products on climate change. All countries should provide incentives for research and development for technologies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions per unit of food product, plus incentives to fully deploy available mitigation technologies.

Medium term: 2030

Countries that were already above target in 2005 should be half-way from 2005 baseline to the target of 90 g per day per person. In countries in which consumption in 2005 was rising rapidly, increases in consumption should have slowed or halted, converging towards the target level. Countries with low consumption in 2005 should be increasing levels of consumption towards the target. All countries should have in place incentive structures to induce widespread adoption of mitigation techniques, together with research and development towards greater mitigation at acceptable cost.

Long term: 2050

All countries should have met the minimum acceptable emissions target. This target should have been achieved mainly by constraining emissions from livestock production. Restricting the intake of red meat from ruminant animals to 50 g per person per day, along with technical advances in livestock production, could reduce total livestock-related emissions below the 2005 level.

Section snippets

The human quest for food: the long historical view

Life processes depend on the cyclical use of carbon, oxygen, water, and energy. Throughout nature the relations between energy, food, and health are fundamental: (1) plants use solar energy to synthesise organic matter, which, together with trace elements, becomes the base of the food web for the animal world; and (2) both plants and animals must use energy and nutrients to grow, feed, and reproduce. The evolution of human culture through three main historical phases has added complexity to

Health gains and losses from dietary abundance

Fogel2 attributes the remarkable gains in life expectancy in modern western populations largely to their expanding food supplies. First, subsistence crises diminished and disappeared; cycles of bad weather, poor crops, dearer food, hunger, and death ceased. Then, after the public-health setbacks associated with urbanisation in the early 19th century, a general marked decline in mortality emerged. By the late 20th century, adult men in countries such as England, Norway, and Sweden were around 10

The nutrition transition and health

Dietary and nutritional patterns have changed widely around the world in recent decades. Actual patterns of change, at the country level, have varied considerably, as has the mix of health gains and losses.

Beyond the health gains from food abundance, increases in national wealth and urbanised living potentiate consumption of refined, processed, and energy-dense foods in place of grains, legumes, and other sources of fibre. In recent decades, marked increases in the consumption of foods high in

Climate change: prospects for food yields

The basic science of human-induced climate change has been well documented.23 Although the main human source of greenhouse-gas emissions is combustion of fossil fuels for energy generation, non-energy emissions (including from agriculture and land-use changes) contribute more than a third of the total greenhouse-gas emissions worldwide.23 Climate change is doubly relevant here: first, climate change will affect food yields and therefore health; second, food production itself contributes

Global climate change: health risks

The health risks from climate change are the topic of increasing research attention and policy development.36, 37 Health risks result from physical hazards, temperature extremes, effects on air quality, altered patterns of transmission of infectious diseases, and effects on food yields. Population displacement and conflict are also likely, because of various factors including food insecurity, desertification, sea-level rise, and increased extreme weather events.38 The rising prospects for

Agriculture, land use, and greenhouse-gas emissions: producing both meat and heat?

Worldwide, greenhouse-gas emissions from agriculture (crop production and animal husbandry) and associated changes in land use, are estimated to exceed those from power generation and transport. Methane and nitrous oxide, combined, are more important emissions from this sector than is carbon dioxide. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas whose full contribution to climate change has recently been re-assessed as being more than half that of carbon dioxide.41

A recent FAO report42 focuses

The case for restricting production and consumption of red meat

Given the projected increases in global livestock production and in associated greenhouse-gas emissions if policies do not change, urgent attention needs to be paid to finding ways of reducing the demand for animal products and the energy intensity of their production.

As has been proposed for greenhouse-gas emissions at large, emphasising international equity, a contraction and convergence policy49 seems to be the most defensible—and therefore the most politically feasible—model for restricting

Conclusions

For human beings, historically, as for the animal world at large, the fundamental point about food and energy has been that, to survive, an individual must acquire at least as much food energy as is expended in basal metabolism, reproducing, and acquiring food. In recent times, the focal point of the interaction between food, energy, and health has shifted radically. Access to unprecedented levels of useable energy, and intensified agricultural (especially livestock production) practices,

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