Introduction Shoulder pain is a highly prevalent condition. Psychological factors could play an essential role in the prognosis of chronic shoulder pain (CSP). The aims of the study will be to analyse the level of association between psychological factors and pain-disability at baseline and prospectively to assess their prognostic role; to evaluate the association of pain catastrophising and kinesiophobia at baseline and prospectively in the relationship between pain intensity and disability, or between self-efficacy and disability in patients with CSP; to explore the association of self-efficacy at baseline and prospectively in the relationship between pain intensity and disability, in comparison with kinesiophobia and pain catastrophising.

Methods and analysis The study is a longitudinal, prospective cohort study with a 12-month follow-up. It will be conducted in 4 primary-care centres and one hospital of the province of Malaga, Spain. 307 participants aged between 18 and 70 years suffering from CSP (3 months or more) will be included. Primary outcomes will include pain, disability and self-efficacy, whereas kinesiophobia, pain-related fear, pain catastrophising, anxiety, depression, patient expectations of recovery, age, gender, duration/intensity of symptoms, educational level and other factors will be predictive measures. Follow-up: baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months.

Ethics and dissemination The local ethics committee (The Costa del Sol Ethics Committee, Malaga, 28042016) has approved this protocol. Dissemination will occur through presentations at National and International conferences and publications in international peer-reviewed journals.

Trial registration number NCT02738372; pre-results