Background Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) of an amnestic type is a common condition in older people and highly predictive of Alzheimer's disease (AD). To date, there is no clear consensus regarding the best antecedent biomarker to predict early conversion to AD.

Objective The aim of the study is to demonstrate that ¹H magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) of the brain in MCI patients may predict early conversion to dementia within the 2-year period after baseline assessment.

Methods A cohort of patients fulfilling the criteria of amnestic MCI were enrolled consecutively. At baseline the patients underwent neuropsychological examination, standard blood tests and APOE genotype. ¹H-MRS (1.5 T) of the brain was carried out by exploring two areas: the posteromedial bilateral parietal lobe and left medial occipital lobe. The patients were followed up to detect conversion to probable AD according to the National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke and the Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association group criteria.

Results After a 2-year follow-up, 27 (38%) patients converted to AD. The mean N-acetyl-aspartate/creatine (NAA/Cr) ratio in the posteromedial bilateral parietal cortex was 1.38 in converters versus 1.49 in non-converters (p<0.0001). An NAA/Cr ratio equal to or lower than 1.43 in this area predicted conversion to probable AD at 74.1% sensitivity and 83.7% specificity (area under the curve: 0.84; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.92). The cross-validated accuracy of classification was 82%, which reaches 85% when the APOE4 genotype and memory test are included in the analysis. In the left medial occipital lobe, the predictive value was somewhat lower with 85.2% sensitivity and 61.4% specificity (area under the curve: 0.8; 95% CI 0.69 to 0.89). Neither the APOE4 genotype nor leuco-araiosis was predictive of conversion to dementia.

Conclusion MRS is a valuable biomarker to predict early conversion to dementia in patients with amnestic MCI.